(0:00) Sacks intros John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs
(1:10) What is the Deep State Party, and what are their goals?
(13:35) Should America leverage its power against dictators?
(21:45) The China threat: avoiding the escalatory path to nuclear war
(35:47) India's growing role; are China's wounds self-inflicted?
(46:45) Conflict in the Middle East and the path to peace
Transcript
Sacks intros John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs
0:00
one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world he is known as one of the world's
0:06
leading experts on economic development one of the most famous
0:12
political scientists in
0:18
history we're talking about moral and political principles here I would suggest that all four Wars could be
0:25
ended quickly great power politics is now back on the table if we are anything
0:31
as a world Community we have to implement what we've [Music]
0:36
[Applause]
0:44
said I'm excited for this panel we're going to talk about foreign policy uh we have I think two of the most interesting
0:51
imminent renowned thinkers about foreign policy uh professor John mimer from
0:56
University of Chicago and Professor Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia so great to have you guys here
1:03
today it's uh it's a it's a big world and there's a lot of things happening so
1:09
let's just jump into it um the big news over the past week was that Dick Cheney endorsed kamla Harris for president I
What is the Deep State Party, and what are their goals?
1:16
think for people who see the world in partisan political terms this might have been surprising but I don't think that
1:22
you guys were that surprised by that do you see an underlying logic to this um
1:27
Jeff why don't I start with you I think it's obvious there's basically
1:32
one deep State party uh and that is the party of Cheney uh Harris Biden uh
1:40
Victoria newand my colleague at Columbia University now uh and uh newand is kind
1:46
of the face of all of this because she has been in every Administration for the last 30 years she was in the Clinton
1:53
Administration wrecking our policies towards Russia in the 1990s she was uh
1:59
in the Bush Administration Jor uh with Cheney uh wrecking our policies towards
2:06
NATO enlargement uh she was in uh then the Obama Administration as Hillary's uh
2:14
spokesperson first and then making a coup in Ukraine in February 2014 not a
2:20
great move started a war then she was uh Biden's uh uh under Secretary of State
2:28
now that's both parties uh it's a a colossal mess and um she's been Cheney's
2:36
uh adviser she's been Biden's advisor she she uh and uh makes perfect sense
2:44
this is the reality uh we're trying to find out if there's another party that's the big question and John what's what's
2:50
your thought on that do you see any difference between uh Republicans and Democrats no I like to refer to the Republicans and the Democrats as Tweedle
2:57
D and Tweedle du
3:05
there's hardly any difference I actually think the one exception is that uh former president Trump when he became
3:12
president in 2017 was bent on beating back to deep State and becoming a
3:18
different kind of leader on the foreign policy front but he basically failed and he is vowed that if he gets elected this
3:26
time uh it will be different and he will beat back the Deep State he will pursue a foreign policy that's fundamentally
3:33
different uh than Republicans and Democrats have pursued up to now and the big question on the table is whether or
3:40
not you think Trump can beat the Deep State and these two established parties uh and i' bet against Trump John um and
3:48
Jeff but let's start with John can you actually Define for us for me I don't understand when people say deep State
3:54
what it is I almost viewed the term comically we have one of our friends in our group chat who we called Deep state
3:59
who is he's deep State he's really in the Deep state but we say it as a joke
4:06
but for maybe the uninitiated what does it actually mean what are their incentives who are
4:12
they Jeff maybe you want to start or John you want to start yeah I'll say a few words about it when we talk about
4:17
the Deep State we're talking really about the administrative State it's very important to understand that starting in
4:24
the late 19th early 20th century uh given developments uh in the American
4:30
economy it was imperative that we develop and this was true of all Western countries a very powerful Central State
4:38
that could run the country and over time that state has grown in power and since
4:45
World War II the United States as you all know has been involved in every nook and cranny of the world fighting Wars
4:51
Here There and Everywhere and to do that you need a very powerful administrative
4:57
State uh that can help manage foreign policy but in the process what happens
5:02
is you get all of these highlevel bureaucrats middle level and lowlevel bureaucrats who become established in
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positions in the Pentagon the state department the intelligence Community you name it and they end up having a
5:16
vested interest in pursuing a particular foreign policy and the particular
5:22
foreign policy that they like to pursue is the one that the Democrats and the Republicans are pushing and that's why
5:29
we talk about Tweedle D and Tweedle Dum with regard to the two parties you could throw in uh the Deep State as being on
5:36
the same page as those other two uh institutions yeah there there's a very
5:42
interesting interview of Putin uh in figuro in 2017 and he says uh I've dealt with
5:49
three presidents now they come into office with some ideas even but then uh
5:55
the men in the dark suits and the blue ties and then he said I I wear red ties
6:01
but they wear blue ties they come in and explain the way the world really is and
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there go the ideas and I think that's Putin's experience that's our experience
6:11
that's my experience which is that there's a deeply entrained foreign policy it has been in place in my
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interpretation for many decades but arguably a variant of it has been in
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place since 1992 I got to watch some of it early on because I was an adviser to gorb and I
6:30
was an adviser to yelson and so I saw early makings of this though I didn't
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fully understand it except in retrospect but that policy has been mostly in place
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pretty consistently for 30 years and it didn't really matter whether it was Bush senior whether it was Clinton whether it
6:48
was Bush Jr whether it was Obama whether it was Trump after all who did Trump
6:53
hire he hired John Bolton well the uh pretty deep State uh that was the end of
7:00
they told you know he explained this is the way it is and by the way Bolton explained also in his Memoirs when when
7:06
Trump didn't agree we figured out ways to trick him basically so well and what what are their incentives is it war is
7:12
it self-enrichment is it power is it all three is it some or is it yeah is it is it just is there a philosophical
7:19
entrenchment or is it just this inertial issue that like once a policy begins it's hard to change and the system's
7:27
just working with 10,000 people working towards it you know if I were lucky to sit next to
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the world's greatest political philosopher which I am um he'd give you
7:39
a good answer which is that the right answer which is if you want to interpret American foreign policy it is to
7:45
maximize power uh and uh he gives a John gives a an explanation of that we have
7:52
uh some differences but I think it's a very good description of American uh
7:58
foreign policy which is is that it's trying to maximize Global power
8:03
essentially to be Global hegemon I I think it could get us all killed this is
8:09
because it's a little bit delusional in my mind but uh not not the I not not his
8:15
interpretation of their idea but the fact that they hold that idea is a little weird to me but in any event
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that's the idea and every time a decision comes inside that I've seen I'm
8:27
an economist so I don't see security decisions the same way but every decision that I've seen always leans in
8:34
the same direction for the last 30 years which is power as the central objective
8:42
so Clinton faced an internal cabinate really debate should NATO be
8:49
enlarged is this this is a post Cold War phenomenon that it's well I'll I'll let John take that just two very quick
8:57
points first of all I do believe that the people people who uh are in favor of this foreign policy uh do believe in it
9:06
it's not cynical they really believe that we're doing the right thing I've met them yeah no yeah the second point I
9:12
would make to you and this sort of adds on to what Jeff said Jeff said power has a lot to do with this and is a good
9:18
realist I of course believe that but it's also very important to understand that the United States is a fundamentally liberal country and we
9:25
believe that we have a right we have a responsibility and we have the power to
9:30
run around the world and remake the world in America's image most people in
9:36
the foreign policy establishment the Republican Party the Democratic party they believe that and that is what has
9:42
motivated our foreign policy in large part since the Cold War ended because
9:48
remember when the cold war ends we have no rival great power left so what are we
9:53
going to do with all this power that we have what we decide to do is go out and remake the world in our own image so
10:01
that's a that's a values point of view though right that there are values that they hold dear that that many do hold
10:07
dear that liberalism democracy does ultimately I believe I've heard this reduce conflict
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worldwide that there's an importance that we've never seen two democratic nations since World War II go to war and
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that there's a reason why we want to see liberalism kind of breed throughout the
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world and it's our responsib ability for world for Global Peace to make that a mandate let me step in for one moment
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okay sure very quickly and by the way I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm uh what do you call it where you pull the spirits of the the
10:40
voice of others but I'm I'm just trying to channeling channeling that's the word I want to be very clear I am forever
10:46
thankful that I was born in a liberal democracy and I love liberalism but the question here is do you think that we
10:53
can run around the world imposing liberal democracy on other countries and
10:59
some cases shoving it down their throat doing it at the end of a rifle barrel and my argument is that's almost
11:06
impossible to do it almost always backfires think Iraq Afghanistan so forth and so on and secondly you begin
11:14
to erode liberalism in the United States because you build a deep state right and
11:19
you want to understand that a lot of the complaints here about cracking down on freedom of speech and so forth and so on
11:26
are related to the fact that we have this ambitious foreign policy those two things go together in very important
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ways what an let me let me disagree just a bit uh because we agree actually on
11:39
the behavior and I've learned I'd say most of that from you that it's power
11:45
seeking truly John in my work 40 years uh overseas I don't think the US
11:52
government gives a damn about these other places I I don't think they really care if it's a liberal democracy if it's
11:58
a dictatorship they want the right of ways they want the military bases they want uh the state to be in support of
12:06
the United States they want NATO enlargement I don't I know You' you've written and there are some who believe
12:13
in stateb building God if they do they are so incompetent it's
12:20
unbelievable but Professor s know I I'll give you an
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example if I put just one one example I'm I'm a friend with one of the
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only PhD Afghani Economist senior person in the US um Academia over the last 30
12:41
years you would think that the state department if they were interested in State Building would ask him one day one
12:49
moment something about Afghanistan never happened never happened not even one
12:54
question never happened he asked me can you get me a a meeting with the department they were completely
13:01
uninterested this is this is about power you're too idealistic
13:08
John they don't care about the other places they may feel we should be
13:14
whatever we want free and so forth but Freedom I've been I've seen my with my
13:20
own eyes the coups the overthrows the presidents democratic presidents LED
13:25
away they don't care at all this is Washington be a realist come on Professor mimer
13:34
I when we talk about power um there are other people in the world who are trying
Should America leverage its power against dictators?
13:39
to accumulate power we live in a multi-polar world right now and they have in some cases very nefarious or bad
13:46
intent um and they do not have democracy so it's one thing to you know tell uh
13:51
people in Afghanistan you need to evolve you know to be a perfect democracy like the one we have here I think we all
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agree that's unrealistic and insane um and not practical but what about the
14:04
free countries of the world uniting together to stop dictators from invading other free countries is that Noble is
14:10
that a good use of power and a good framework for America to evolve too no I
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don't think so uh I think that what the United States should do is worry about
14:21
its own National interest uh in some cases that's going to involve aligning ourselves with a dictator uh if we're
14:29
fighting World War II all over again it's December 8th 1941 you surely would be in favor of
14:36
allying with adol not with Adolf Hitler with Joseph Stalin and the Soviet Union
14:41
against uh Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany sometimes you have to make those kind of compromises uh as I said before I love
14:48
liberal democracy I have no problem align with liberal democracy but when you begin to think in the terms that
14:54
you're thinking you end up uh with an Impulse to do social engineering around
15:00
the world and that gets you in all sorts of problems well what I'm proposing is when dictatorships invade other
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countries then we take action it depends maybe def defend them so it depends yeah of course I mean when Russia invades
15:15
Ukraine basically what you're saying is you want to go to war on behalf of
15:20
Ukraine against Russia are you in favor of that no I would say diplomacy would obviously be what we'd want to exhaust
15:27
but if they do roll into other fre countries I think there's an argument for the free countries of the world to get together and say two dictators we're
15:33
not going to allow this could I come in
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here could I clarify a few
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things look uh first of all um almost all the time that we intervene
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it's because uh we view this as a power situation for the us so whether it's
16:00
Ukraine or Syria or Libya or other places even if we Define it as defending
16:09
something believe me it's not about defending something it's about a perception of us power and US interest
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and it's in objectives of us Global hegemony and if we analyze the Ukraine
16:24
conflict uh just even a little bit below the surface this is not a a conflict about Putin invading Ukraine this is
16:32
something a lot different that has to do with American power projection into the
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former Soviet Union so it's completely different second if we decide were the
16:45
police which we do you can't imagine how cynical
16:52
we use to justify our actions we used the cynical B that
16:59
we're defending the people of Benghazi to bomb the hell out of Libya to kill
17:05
moamar Gaddafi why did we do that well I'm kind of an expert on that region and
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I can tell you maybe because sarosi didn't like Gaddafi there's no much
17:16
deeper reason except Hillary liked every bombing she could get her hands on and Obama was kind of convinced my secretary
17:24
of state says go with it so why don't we go with the NATO Expedition it had nothing to do with Libya it un it
17:30
Unleashed 15 years of chaos cheated the UN Security Council because like
17:36
everything else we've done it was on false pretenses we did the same with trying to overthrow Syria we did the
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same with conspiring to overthrow Victor yanukovich in Ukraine in February 2014
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so the problem with this argument is we're not nice guys we're not trying to
17:55
save the world we're not trying to make democracies we had a committee by the way of all the
18:02
luminaries you could mention but they're The neocon Crazies but they're luminaries the committee for the people
18:08
of Cheta are you kidding do you think they even knew where chn is or cared about
18:16
Chia but it was an opportunity to get at Russia to weaken Russia to support a
18:21
jihadist movement inside Russia to do this is a game but it's the game that
18:26
John has described better than any one in the world it's a game of power it's
18:32
not that we're defending real things if you want to defend real things go to the UN Security Council and convince others
18:39
because the other countries are not crazy and they don't want Mayhem in the world but we play game so they say
18:46
that's a game Iraq which was obviously a game before we went in it was a
18:51
obviously Co and Powell could not move his lips without lying that day obviously and so they said no but if
18:59
we're real about our interests then you go to the UN Security Council and then it's not just on us it's actually then a
19:06
collective security issue uh Professor M if we were to take Jeffrey's position here um that we are exerting power for
19:13
the sake of you know our reputation and in fact to weaken dictatorships if I'm if I'm summarizing correctly here um is
19:21
that not a good strategy to weaken dictators around the world who might like to invade other countries is there
19:27
is there a frame Fring in which you could see that being um for you know a
19:33
world where democracy and people living freely has gone down in our lifetimes is
19:39
that not knowable is there not a justification somebody could make for I'm not saying I have that but I'm just trying to steal me on the other side of
19:45
this is weakening dictators and despots a good strategy it depends uh well let's
19:51
talk about the the two that we have you know uh Xi Jinping I think you wanted to get to eventually and then Ukraine and
19:58
Putin are these people worth trying to you know uh contain or even weaken well
20:04
in in terms of China I'm fully in favor of containing China okay so containment
20:10
check it's containment I'm not interested in regime change I'm not interested in trying to turn China into
20:17
a democracy not going to happen yeah not going to happen we tried it actually and I thought it was foolish to even pursue
20:23
a policy of Engagement toward China with regard to Russia I don't think Russia is a serious threat to the United States
20:30
and indeed I think the United States should have good relations with Putin it's a remarkably foolish policy to push
20:38
him into the arms of the Chinese there are three great powers in the system the United States China and Russia China is
20:45
a peer competitor to the United States it's the most serious threat to the United States Russia is the weakest of
20:52
those three great powers and it's not a serious threat to us if you are playing balance and power politics and you're
20:58
interested as the United States in containing China you want Russia on your side of the Ledger but what we have done
21:06
in effect is we have pushed Russia into the arms of the Chinese this is a
21:11
remarkably foolish policy and furthermore by getting bogged down in Ukraine and now bogged down in the
21:17
Middle East it's become very difficult for us to Pivot to Asia to deal with
21:23
China which is the principal threat that we face [Applause]
21:31
can I think David could I just say uh 2/3
21:37
right perfect so you gave him a b or B plus a
21:42
minus I always give him an A minus inflation I just wanted to add a footnote which is that China's also not
The China threat: avoiding the escalatory path to nuclear war
21:48
a threat it's just not a threat I mean we're going to get to it ch ch China
21:54
China's a market it's uh got great food great culture uh wonderful people a
22:00
civilization 10 times older than ours it's not a threat well as an economist can you talk about the impact of a cold
22:08
or hot conflict with China from an economic perspective given the trade relationship yeah it would wreck California for one thing it would
22:15
destroy the economy that you guys are making completely this economy has been the biggest beneficiary of China's rise
22:22
probably in the whole world so it's crazy maybe if you're worried if you're
22:27
really worried about about whether uh a worker in Ohio has a particular job on a
22:32
particular assembly line then uh you can be anti-china if you're worried about the tech industry about California about
22:40
peace and the future you should be pro-china that's all so why is it become so Universal to assume that we are
22:47
already in a state of conflict with China on not just party lines but like
22:53
almost any Spectrum you could kind of like consider said it exact right and he
22:59
predicted it better than anyone in the whole world in 2001 he said when China
23:06
becomes large we're going to have conflict because that's John's Theory
23:11
and it's right as a description of American foreign policy that we are for power they are big therefore they're an
23:17
enemy they're an enemy of our aspiration to Global City tra City let let's let
23:24
John jump in here do you want you want me to is it okay if I talk about this yeah yeah I mean I think um I think that
23:30
um what's interesting I mean you and Jeff I think arrive at similar conclusions about Ukraine uh but
23:38
different ones on China right because Jeff is an economist and I think sees the world in fundamentally positive some
23:44
ways based on the potential for trade economics basically whereas you see the
23:49
world as more of a zero sum game based on the balance of power why don't you just explain that difference I okay uh
23:56
it is very important to emphasize David was saying that Jeff and I agree on all sorts of issues including Ukraine and
24:03
Israel Palestine but we disagree fundamentally as he just made clear on China and let me explain to you why I
24:09
think that's the case and then Jeff can tell you why he thinks I'm wrong
24:15
uh it has to do with security whether you privilege security or survival or
24:20
whether you privilege prosperity and economists and I would imagine most of you in the audience really care greatly
24:26
about maximizing prosperity for someone like me who's a realist what I care about is maximizing the state's
24:32
prospects of survival and when you live in an Antarctic system and in IR speak
24:38
that means there's no higher authority there's no night Watchmen that can come down and rescue you if you get into
24:43
trouble and this is the International System there's no higher authority in that anarchic world the best way to
24:50
survive is to be really powerful as we used to say when I was a kid on New York City playgrounds you want to be the
24:56
biggest and baddest dude on the Block and that's simply because it's the best way to survive if you're really powerful
25:03
nobody fools around with you the United States is a regional hedgemon it's the
25:08
only Regional hedgemon on the planet we dominate the Western Hemisphere and what
25:14
China has begun to do as it's got increasingly powerful economically is
25:21
translate that economic might into military might and it is trying to
25:27
dominate Asia it wants to push us out beyond the first island chain it wants to push us out beyond the second island
25:33
chain it wants to be like we are in the Western Hemisphere and I don't blame the Chinese one bit if I was the National
25:40
Security advisor in Beijing that's what I'd be telling XI ping we should be trying to do but of course from an
25:47
American point of view this is unacceptable and we do not tolerate peer
25:53
competitors we do not want another Regional hedgemon on the planet in the
25:59
20th century there were four countries that threatened to become Regional hegemons like us Imperial Germany
26:07
Imperial Japan Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union the United States played a
26:12
key role in putting all four of those countries on the scrap peap of History we want to remain the only Regional
26:19
hedgemon in the world we are a ruthless great power never want to lose sight of
26:25
that fact and the end result of this is you get an intense security competition
26:31
between China and the United States and it revolves
26:36
around the concept of security not Prosperity what you just very quickly so
26:42
what you see beginning to happen is that it's in all domains where the
26:47
competition takes place especially high-tech we do not want them defeating
26:53
this defeating Us in the Hightech War we are competing with them econom ically we
26:59
are competing with them militarily and this is because the best way to survive
27:04
is for us the United States of America to be the only Regional hedgemon on the
27:11
planet so Jeff let me let me set it up for for Jeff here so Jeff I you and John
27:18
I think agree that the the game on on the board is power seeking I think what
27:23
John is saying is there are smart ways and dumb ways to pursue power that containing China is a smart way
27:30
what we're doing in Ukraine is a dumb way whereas it seems like you're saying that all power seeking behavior is bad
27:37
that's not the game we should be playing we should somehow opt out of that is that is that kind of where you're going
27:43
it's a it's not a bad way to say it but I would I would put it in in another way
27:48
I read a very good book uh John's
27:53
um and and John described
27:58
I'm going to quote him but he can quote himself afterwards he he he said that
28:04
the regional hegemons uh don't threaten each other actually why because we have big ocean
28:11
in between I deeply believe that China is not a
28:17
threat to the United States and I deeply believe the only threat to the United
28:24
States period in the world given the oceans given our size and given the
28:30
military is nuclear war I deeply believe we're close to
28:36
nuclear war because we have a mindset
28:42
that leads us in that direction we have a mindset that everything is a challenge
28:47
for survival and that escalation is therefore always the right approach my
28:53
view is a little bit of prudence could save the whole planet
28:58
so why I don't like Ukraine is that I don't see any reason in the world that
29:05
NATO has to be on Russia's border with Ukraine I was as I said gorbachov's
29:11
adviser and yelton's adviser and they wanted peace and they wanted cooperation
29:17
but whatever they wanted they did not want the US military on their border so
29:23
if we continued to push as we did we would get to war John explained that
29:29
better than anybody we're now at War and even this morning there is further
29:35
escalation blinkin has said well if the Iranians give these missiles then we will give missiles to hit deep into
29:41
Russia this is a recipe and then we had Bill Burns the CIA director say last
29:48
week an absurdity that he knows but Cia directors never tell the truth if they
29:53
do they lose their job but he said don't worry about nuclear war don't worry about saber rattling my advice to you is
30:02
worry a lot about nuclear war and so be prudent you don't have to put the US
30:10
military on Russia's border okay and my advice to Russia and to Mexico when I'm
30:16
going to Mexico tomorrow I'll give them a piece of advice don't let China or
30:22
Russia build a military base on the r Grant not a good idea for Mexico not a
30:27
good good idea for Ukraine not a good idea for Russia not a good idea for China not a good idea for the United
30:34
States we need to stay a little bit away from each other so that we don't have a
30:39
nuclear war by the way I do recommend another good book and that is Annie
30:44
Jacobson's nuclear war a scenario it takes two hours to read the world ends
30:50
in two hours in the book uh and uh it's a very persuasive guide that one nuke can ruin
30:58
your whole day as they say Jeffrey can um uh my my strong advice on this
31:05
therefore is recognize China first of all is not a threat to the United States
31:13
security big oceans big nuclear deterrent and so forth second we don't
31:19
have to be in China's face what do I mean by that we don't have to provoke World War III Over Taiwan that's a long
31:27
complicated issue but this would be the stupidest thing for my grandchildren to die for imaginable and I resent it every
31:35
day when we play that game we have three agreements with China that say we're
31:41
going to stay out of that and we should and then China would have no reason for
31:46
war either China and then on the economic side let
31:52
me just reiterate because I was asked yesterday and there was some surprise
31:57
was it good to let China into the the WTO I said of course it enriched all of
32:03
you by the way it enriched me it enriched this country it enriched the world including enriching China that's
32:11
normal economics is not a zero sum game we all agree on that I believe that
32:17
security doesn't have to be a zero sum game either we can stay a little bit
32:22
away from each other and China does not spend its time beon in America being a
32:29
western hemisphere hegemon they don't that's not their greatest interest to
32:35
bring down American uh Power in the Western Hemisphere Jee what about the
32:40
energy hold on let's let John respond to this just very quickly most of you have
32:45
probably never asked yourself the question why is the United States roaming all over the planet interfering
32:52
in every country's business it's in part because it's so powerful but it's also because it's a hegemon which means we
32:59
have no threats in the Western Hemisphere so we are free to roam the
33:05
great danger Jeff if China becomes a regional hedgemon and doesn't have to
33:10
worry about security conc then they behave like us yeah then they behave like us exact but my point to you Jeff
33:17
is let's prevent that from happening by preventing them from becoming a regional
33:22
hedgemon we don't want them to have freedom to roam you were talking about them putting military bases in Mexico
33:30
that's our great fear it's not my great fear they have no interest in doing so because they don't want to get blown up
33:36
either so they do seem to have a big interest Jeff in Africa India Russia and
33:41
they are China has a major um military bases there oh well
33:49
they're building nuclear power plants in trade and they're building de difference in favor of that let's go compete that
33:55
way I'm all in favor of that but Jeff that's cuz they're not a Regal hegemon yet yeah if you try to prevent them from
34:03
being a regional hegemon we're going to end up in World War I because as you say yourself that this can absolutely spill
34:10
over into war I don't want it to spill over into war on the theory that maybe
34:16
someday they behave differently that's not a good theory for me so so so that part so John can we contain China
34:24
prevent them from becoming a regional haimon without Direct ly defending Taiwan I mean isn't that where the
34:30
rubber meets the road no it's not just Taiwan I mean one could argue there's sort of three flash points in East Asia
34:37
that you folks should keep your eye on one is obviously Taiwan two is the South China Sea and three is the East China
34:43
Sea and I think David that the place where a conflict is most likely today is not over Taiwan I could explain why I
34:51
think Taiwan is not a serious problem at the moment or for the foreseeable future the South China Sea is a very dangerous
34:57
place we could end up in a war for sure even if we did not defend
35:04
Taiwan uh so Taiwan you don't want to overemphasize I agree with I agree with
35:10
Jeff that we definitely don't want a war and we certainly don't want a nuclear war and he is absolutely correct that
35:17
there's a risk of a nuclear war if a war breaks out of any sort between China and the United States many of us in the
35:25
audience remember the Cold War and this was an everpresent danger in the Cold War but my argument is that this is
35:32
inevitable because in a world where you don't have a higher authority and you care about your survival you have a
35:39
deep-seated interest as any state in the system to be as powerful as possible and
35:45
that means dominating your world um there is one uh player on this chess
India's growing role; are China's wounds self-inflicted?
35:50
board that hasn't come up yet and then maybe we could skate to where the puck is going you know when you talk about the South China Sea okay sure South
35:57
Korea Japan Jaan Australia all those major players there they're just a couple hundred million people but then
36:02
China is in population decline she apparently is self-destructing in terms of trade seems like uh containment is
36:09
working pretty well there because of the all the self-inflicted wounds but the fastest growing country fastest growing
36:14
economy the quickest to develop is India and they seem to have a very pragmatic approach hey they'll buy cheap oil from
36:21
Putin and they are their own sovereign country with their own point of view Would we not be really well advised over
36:28
the next 10 to 20 years to make that our priority and India's role in this how do you look at them well we definitely view
36:34
India as an ally right it's part of the Quad which is this uh this rubbe
36:40
Goldberg type Alliance structure that we put together in East Asia that includes Australia Japan the United States and
36:47
India and India is smartly maintaining
36:52
its good relations with Russia the Indians understand like Jeff and I do that the Russians are no great threat
36:59
but from India's point of view the real threat is China right right and there are two places where India cares about
37:05
China One is on the India China border up in the Himalayas where they've
37:11
actually had conflicts right and there's a real danger of War breaking out the
37:16
second place which is maybe even more dangerous not at the moment but will be over time is the Indian Ocean because
37:24
the Chinese are imitating the United States they not not only want to be a regional hedgemon they want to develop
37:30
power projection capability so the Chinese are building a Bluewater Navy that can come out of East Asia through
37:38
the Straits of Mala through the Indian Ocean to the Persian Gulf and once you
37:44
start talking about going through the Indian Ocean the Indians get spooked and
37:49
that's when the Americans in the Indians come together okay let's think of this from an engineering point of view if we
37:56
could um why are the Chinese developing the Navy
38:01
because for 40 years I've read essays on
38:07
all of the choke points uh in the South China Sea the East China Sea the Indian
38:13
Ocean against China that's our policy choke points look at the malaka Straits
38:20
look what we can do here first island chain this is American strategy can we
38:25
keep the Chinese submarine out of the Pacific Ocean First China first island chain and so forth so of course they
38:34
react they're rich they're going to build a Navy so that they can get their oil on which their economy runs can we
38:40
be a little bit sensible with them and decide how we're not going to have choke
38:45
points and then we don't have to have a nuclear war which is really going to ruin our day that's the point we can
38:52
think a little bit we can understand it from their perspective we can understand it from our perspec perspective
39:00
deconfliction by the way I don't believe India is an ally India is a
39:08
superpower India is going to have its own very distinctive interests thank you
39:13
it's not going to be an ally of the United States I happen to like India enormously and and admire their policies
39:20
but the idea that India is going to Ally with the United States against China in somebody's dream uh in
39:29
Washington because it's another delusion in Washington because they should get a passport and go see the world and and
39:36
and understand something but Jeffrey if they these are
39:43
my fa students in Washington right now cuz they didn't listen to their Professor Jeffrey we're we're making our
39:49
iPhones in India now is that not significantly important say again we're
39:55
moving iPhone production maybe Cooper you're into economics here and that impact you you got Apple moving out of
40:02
China you've got Japan funding people leaving China to Vietnam and to India is that not the solution here as we
40:08
decouple from China it seems like they come back to the table we had XI jingping kick all the Venture capitalists all investment out of China
40:16
he got rid of all the education startups and then whatever two or three years later he's in San Francisco asking all
40:22
of us to invest more money and saying where'd you go okay first of all uh
40:27
invite me back 10 years and we'll see how smart all these decisions are because uh Shing it's incred no I'm
40:34
talking about yes we've moved to India that's our great Ally and then then we're going to have other other issues
40:41
okay you I think you said that XI jinping's trade policy is uh implo self-
40:46
imploding or something it seems like there's a lot of self-inflicted wounds when you it's not let me explain what
40:52
the wounds are okay the wounds are the United States deliberate policy to stop
40:58
you from selling things to China and to stop China buying things from you that's
41:03
not self-inflicted this a clear wait minute just to say let me say please
41:09
because it's very important for the economy of the people in this room this is a decision that was taken around
41:17
2014 to contain China and it's been systematically applied since then and
41:24
it's not a surprise that Biden kept all the things that Trump did and
41:30
added more and now Trump says I'm going to do all the things that Biden has kept in place and I'm going to do more this
41:37
is not a self-inflicted wound the United States has closed the market to China
41:43
okay is that smart no it's not smart is it leading to uh is it by the way
41:51
recuperating American manufacturing jobs zero it may shift them a bit it make may
41:58
make things less efficient it may may make all of you lose a bit more money or
42:04
not make as much money but is it going to solve any single economic problem in
42:10
the United States no way let me John let let John spicy I I just want
42:17
to ask Jeff a question on this uh my argument is that this is the
42:24
way the world Works yes I know and it is and it is but if I'm describing how the
42:30
world really works how do you beat me the the reason is you've described a
42:36
world you've described I think better than any person I ever read or know how
42:43
American foreign policy works I think it's likely to get us all blown up you
42:49
you not and you title not not because of John but because he made an accurate
42:55
description of a profoundly misguided approach which
43:01
is power seeking even if you're safe as a regional hegemon you're never safe if
43:08
another Regional hegemon does what you do no you can't allow that to happen so you have to metal every single place in
43:14
the world this now all I'm saying wait let me just finish because it's important that it is important to
43:22
say try this in the nuclear age you don't get a second chance
43:27
so this to me is the most definitive fact of Our Lives which is we are now in
43:35
a war direct War direct War not proxy war direct war with Russia which has
43:42
6,000 nuclear warheads I can't think of anything more imbecilic than that aside
43:48
from the fact that I know step by step because I saw it with my own eyes how we
43:54
got into that mess because we thought we had to medal up to including putting
44:00
NATO into Georgia in the caucuses of all places and Ukraine so we made that
44:06
because we have to medal because we couldn't let good enough uh stand if we
44:13
do the same with China there will be a war but it's not like reading about the
44:19
Crimean War or World War One or World War II that's my difference this is a
44:25
fine theory that explains a lot of things but damn if you can make chat GPT
44:32
or you can make Optimus or you can make all the rest we can avoid nuclear war so
44:39
just do a little bit better than saying it's inevitable all right
44:45
so we only have a minute left so I want to give it to John I just want to ask he had a question I know but we only have a
44:50
minute left and it's we got to add five minutes this is the best panel I've ever been on in my life can we just add 10
44:55
minutes minutes we got to add 5 or 10 minutes the best panel is this the best panel ever I feel like calling a respond
45:02
wa wa before okay we got 5 minutes so before before we leave this topic John your book is called the tragedy of great
45:10
power politics you clearly understand the tragic aspect of how great power
45:15
rivalry great power competition can lead to disaster what Jeff is saying is we're now in the nuclear age and it's going to
45:22
lead to nuclear war so do we have to be on this path or is there way off of it
45:28
two points in my heart I'm with Jeff in my head I'm not with Jeff I wish he were
45:36
right but I don't believe he's right to answer your question head-on I believe
45:41
that there is no way out we are in an iron cage this is just the way International politics works and it's
45:48
because you're in an anarchic system where you can never be sure that a really powerful state in the system
45:53
won't come after you and inflict A Century of national humiliation on you so you go to Great Lengths to avoid that
46:01
by trying to gain power at the expense of another power and that leads to all
46:07
sorts of trouble can War be avoided I like to distinguish between security
46:12
competition which I think is inevitable and War which is where security competition evolves into war I think War
46:19
can be avoided and we were thankfully successful in that regard during the Cold War and hopefully that will be the
46:27
case uh in the US China competition moving forward can I guarantee that no
46:34
uh does this disturb me greatly yes but again this is just a tragic aspect of
46:41
the world let me just ask one because we're a little bit I know we were going to try and talk about Middle East for a
Conflict in the Middle East and the path to peace
46:47
good chunk of this so I just want a scenario uh uh propose or kind of give you guys a scenario get your reaction
46:54
because it is kind of what feels to be the most imminent uh theater of conflict uh the West Bank um the the Israelis are
47:03
buttressing the settlements there's a lot of checkpoints things are getting very tense they're running raids and
47:09
it's becoming a very difficult place to live for Palestinians and there's a real concern that the West Bank collapses and Israelis and Israelis but there's a real
47:16
risk that the West Bank collapses and turns into a real conflict Zone if that
47:21
happens the jordanians are sitting right there and they're not going to let Palestinians get slaughtered they're going to have to do something and
47:27
they're such a strong Ally of the United States does that trigger a
47:33
theater of response where what is Saudi going to do are others going to be drawn to the region does the collapse of the
47:39
West Bank or the the the conflict that seems to be brewing in the West Bank become this kind of Tinder Box for
47:46
everyone showing up and getting involved and um uh and create some sort of
47:51
regional issue that we get drawn into in a bigger way can I start and have John
47:57
have the last word uh you know I I work uh each day at the UN um and discuss
48:04
this issue with ambassadors from all over the world there is over the last 50 years a
48:10
a an agreement on what would make for peace and the agreement is uh two states
48:19
uh maybe with a big wall between them on the 4th of June 1967 borders with a
48:25
state of Palestine being the 194th UN member state and its
48:30
capital in East Jerusalem and control over the Islamic holy sites and that is
48:36
international law the international court of justice just reaffirmed that the Israeli settlements in the West Bank
48:44
are illegal uh the uh international criminal court uh uh is likely to find
48:51
or icj is likely to find that Israel is in violation of the 1948 genocide convention
48:57
which I very much believe it to be in violation so my own solution to this is
49:04
Implement International law two states build the wall as high as you need to
49:09
build but uh you give Palestinian rights you establish a state of Palestine you
49:15
stop the Israeli Slaughter of Palestinians you stop the Israeli apartheid state and uh you have uh two
49:23
states living side by side Israel is dead set against that uh the entire
49:29
Israeli political uh governance now is dead set against that hundreds of
49:35
thousands of illegal settlers in the West Bank are dead set against that smotrich benir Galant Netanyahu are dead
49:44
set against that so my view is it has nothing to do with what Israel wants it has to do with enforcement of
49:51
international law so I want to see this imposed not because Israel agrees to it
49:56
but because it is imposed and there is one country that stands in the way of
50:02
imposing this not Iran not the Saudis not Egypt not Russia not China not any
50:09
country in the European Union one country and one country alone and that is because of the United States of
50:16
America and the is Israel Lobby somebody wrote a very good book about that too
50:21
that I know uh the best book ever written about it by John uh uh and um
50:27
that's what stops the solution that could bring peace and I believe we should bring peace because not only
50:35
would that bring peace to the Palestinians and peace to the Israelis but it would avoid potentially another
50:41
flasho that could easily end up in World War II let me answer your question about
50:48
escalation potential the jordanians coming in uh Israel faces three big
50:54
problems aside from problems with centrifical forces inside the society one is the Palestinian problem which is
51:01
both in Gaza and in the West Bank it's one two is Hezbollah and three is
51:08
Iran I think there is virtually no chance of what you described happening
51:14
which is if the Israelis were to go on a rampage in the West Bank similar what they've done in Gaza that the jordanians
51:21
would come in or the Egyptians or the Saudis they simply don't have the military capability this is a scenario
51:28
where the Israelis completely dominate so in terms of escalation with regard to
51:33
the Israel Palestine problem I don't think there's much potential Hezbollah
51:39
is a different issue uh but mainly because it's linked with Iran right and
51:45
Iran is the really dangerous flasho because as you know the Russians are now
51:50
closely allied with the Iranians the Chinese are moving in that direction as well and
51:57
if Israel gets involved in a war with Iran we're going to come in in all
52:03
likelihood remember when the Israelis attacked the uh the Iranian Embassy in
52:12
Damascus on April 1st on April 14th the Iranians retaliated reciprocal
52:19
response yeah but but we were involved we were we were forewarned weren't we yes we were forewarned but the point is
52:25
that we were involved in the fighting right we were involved with the Israelis with the French the British the
52:32
jordanians and the Saudis we were all involved in the fighting so this gets at the escalation problem now to counter
52:39
the Iranian escalation scenario the fact is Iran does not want a war with the
52:45
United States and the United States does not want a war with Iran and it's the
52:51
Israelis especially Benjamin Netanyahu has been who has been trying to sort of suck us into a war because he wants us
52:59
the United States to really whack Iran weaken it militarily and especially to
53:05
go after its nuclear capabilities because as you well know they are close to the point where they can develop
53:11
nuclear weapons so the Israelis are the ones who want us to get involved in a
53:17
big war with Iran that's the escalation flasho and The $64,000 question is
53:22
whether you think the United States and Iran kind of loting can work together to
53:28
prevent the Israelis from getting us that that question will be answered based on the next who who who leads the
53:35
next Administration well if you believe that it matters who leads the next
53:41
Administration that's true take it out thank you let me just
53:46
say Jeffrey and John now I know why saxs will not stop talking about you too this
53:53
was the most amazing panel of the event so far are give it up for Jeffrey Sachs and John Mir shimer all
