What Should Leaders Learn from History?

Transcript

0:00

hello

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so before I got on an airplane

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to come here A friend of mine asked the

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question and the question was if I had

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an alternate title for my talk tonight

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what would it be

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and uh I thought about it a little bit

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and I decided that maybe the title was

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um

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a plea for balance

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so obviously balance of what

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there are two forces throughout history

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that have shaped every single

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civilization without exception and those

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two forces don't like each other they're

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they're in conflict with one another

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they Clash

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the first force is the Innovative Force

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the Innovative force is the force that

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believes that the only way to greet the

0:47

future

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is through change

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it likes change it seeks out change

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it's a very dangerous Force especially

0:56

when it's Unleashed and there's no

0:59

counterbalance to it because it'll tear

1:01

up culture and it'll change traditions

1:03

and it changes identities and it asks

1:07

uncomfortable questions

1:10

by contrast the other force is the

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preserving Force

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the preserving Force wants to not just

1:16

lock things in place in this moment it

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actually almost always has some amazing

1:23

event from the past that it looks to as

1:26

the model not just for the present but

1:29

for the future as well in other words

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there's some moment in the past that the

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preserving Force says this is what we

1:37

should be doing I can't believe we're

1:38

doing what we're doing what we're doing

1:39

right now is wrong the Innovative forces

1:41

have gotten out of control

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the problem is is our species at least

1:47

for the last 12 000 years has steadily

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kept changing the amount of Technology

1:52

available

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in other words whether we want to or not

1:56

we have been in a state of constant

1:59

change for 12 000 years just look at

2:02

what we've done in the last 200 years

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the last 50 years the last 20 years the

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the pace of change is actually

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accelerated

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so that it's geometric it's an

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exponential curve

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which is of course

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scary because it means that on one hand

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some of the Innovative forces out of

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control it's out of balance and the

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preserving force is lost control of that

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and as a result we see a pendulum swing

2:31

if your Society has some balance the

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pendulum swing should be kind of gentle

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it shouldn't be too horrible

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there's been a there is one state that

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has done a decent job in the last two

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centuries of getting a level of balance

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and it's Sweden it's used for 175 years

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it's used its Democratic institutions to

2:52

slow things down if the change was too

2:55

fast and the swedes would vote

2:56

conservative but then when the swedes

2:58

are ready for more change they would

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vote socialist and it went back and

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forth today Sweden a country of 11

3:04

million people is one of the largest

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economies on the planet it's stable the

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people have buy-in they have levels of

3:11

happiness

3:12

by contrast one of the most shocking

3:15

events in terms of imbalance was the

3:20

conflict that took place in Spain from

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711 to 1492.

3:25

in the South the Muslim ruled Spain was

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Innovative it was diverse it was

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accepting

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it had Commerce it did inventions it

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changed things as minor as how shoes

3:39

were made the term cord waner comes from

3:42

Cordova

3:44

and stark contrast the fanatic

3:47

fundamentalist Christian states of the

3:49

north sought not just to create a

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unified Spain they sought to crush that

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diversity and create a homogeneous state

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where everybody believed essentially the

3:59

same thing

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they sought to then also Purge the

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Jewish and Muslim populations from Spain

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in the process

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what's incredible about the Spanish

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moment is not only that the conflict

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lasted 781 years and not only that by

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most people's standards the bad guys

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Juan

4:20

the homogeneous Crusher population

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but that it all kind of came together in

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one year

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so it obviously was a process that took

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eight centuries but in one year 1492 a

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bunch of it lined up just the way they

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wanted it to the kingdom of Granada

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Falls the last Muslim Kingdom

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the Jews are expelled and then 10 years

4:44

later the Muslims are expelled

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now obviously a lot of Jews and Muslims

4:49

converted and they became the conversos

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and the Mariscos

4:53

but it's also the air that the world is

4:56

forever dramatically completely changed

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it's flipped upside down and shaken

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because it's the year that Columbus

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starts the conquest of North and South

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America by Europeans

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it's the year that triggers

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a catastrophe for the Native American

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populations

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within a century somewhere around 150

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million Native Americans die

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it's incomprehensible

5:27

Mass enslavement Conquest whole

5:30

civilizations are destroyed

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and it was possible because the Spanish

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had so much momentum from the war

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machine that they had built to crush the

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Muslim South that they just simply took

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that momentum they Unleashed it into the

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new world

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and when they did they brought that

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preserving force of homogenizing with

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them

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and the result was that even though the

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Spanish created a massive Empire that

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stretched across two continents and then

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the Philippines

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they didn't have the ability to adopt

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they didn't have the industry

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to develop their to keep their sustain

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their war machine to replace the armado

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and the English sanket in other words

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what they had done by creating this

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locked in homogeneous society is they

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had lost the ability to innovate and

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adapt for the future so even though the

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Spanish Empire last 300 years the only

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reason it lasts 300 years was its

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massive size gave it the momentum to

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sustain itself

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in other words the preserving Force got

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out of balance and in control

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and it was catastrophic the thing that

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made the conquest of the Americas

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possible was also the very thing that

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doomed the Spanish Empire

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but having said that that's actually not

6:50

what I want to talk about I don't want

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to talk about the past well I do but

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more recent past I actually want to dive

6:56

into something a little bit closer to us

6:59

and I was thinking about it and we live

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in a world where everything's

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ideological everything is liberal

7:04

conservative I'm so exhausted by it

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sometimes socialist and at the end of

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the day I have awful names for everybody

7:10

nobody knows enough to be certain of

7:14

anything

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and the fact that you're certain makes

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me certain that you're wrong

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right so to avoid that and not upset

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people I decided to try and do something

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a little apolitical but to still

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illustrate my point

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so my story I'm going to give you a

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little story is about NASA

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right space exploration usually people

7:37

don't get too upset about space

7:38

exploration I should be able to get away

7:40

with it

7:42

in 1972 NASA approached President Nixon

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because they had just made a discovery

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it was a really cool Discovery it turns

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out

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that if they launch a probe by 1977 if

7:58

they launched

8:00

a spaceship by 1977

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they could catch the four big gas giants

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with the one spaceship

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they could send this probe to Jupiter

8:12

use its gravity to slingshot it past

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Jupiter to Saturn past Saturn to Uranus

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past Uranus to Neptune and then leave

8:20

the solar system and send us data back

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the whole way

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makes him Mania was going to resist the

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reason they knew Rick Nixon was going to

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resist is because Nixon was part of the

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preserver Force

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in American parlance we'd say

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conservative but it's not really a

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liberal conservative thing so I want to

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be careful with it which is why I'm

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using the preserver for us it in the in

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1968 Nixon believed he had been elected

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to undo the 60s that was his mandate he

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wanted a 1973 to be 1953. honestly I

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think if it could have been 1853 he

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would have preferred that

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but at least 1953 the year he became

9:00

vice president for Eisenhower

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so

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two years after we land on the Moon 1971

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Nixon slashes NASA's budget

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they're punished for their success

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so by 1972 they know they're in trouble

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so they go to the president

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tears already in their eyes because

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they're worried he's going to say no

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and they tell them about this

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unbelievably strange event where the

9:30

planets are not really lined up but kind

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of lined up right for probe purposes

9:36

they're lined up

9:38

they need to launch by 77 so they can't

9:41

wait for the election results

9:43

and besides Nixon might get a second

9:46

term so they need the permission now

9:49

so they got them and they go will you

9:52

authorize us to send this probe

9:55

to look at the four big gas giants

9:59

and of course his answer is no

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and the reason his answer is no

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it's because he sees science as part of

10:07

the problem

10:09

what does science do it asks questions

10:12

it never really answers any question

10:14

by the time you're done answering a

10:16

question you end up with 13 more

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questions

10:20

and it and the result is that it leaves

10:22

us going wow I just don't like electrons

10:25

electrons are so bizarre

10:28

we can actually have a situation where

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we can look at an electron and it

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behaves like a particle and then we can

10:35

change the parameters and it acts like a

10:37

wave but here's what's really weird the

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way we change which one it does is if we

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looked at the data on how it was

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behaving if we don't look it acts like a

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wave as soon as we look it acts like a

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particle it's almost as if the electron

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is aware that we're looking

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right you look at that you go okay I

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don't never am I going to think of

10:57

electrons again I'm done with it it's

10:59

protons for my future because protons

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are predictable

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so Nixon is looking at this and he's

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going we just did the 60s and it's

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because of people like you innovators

11:14

who hold Summits to have ideas talked

11:16

about right that's what this is in case

11:18

you hadn't figured it out already

11:20

it's a chance to share

11:22

and maybe make people uncomfortable on

11:24

occasion but but to get ideas out there

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and Nixon goes the 60s which by the way

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was 15 years long started in 54 ended in

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69.

11:35

Steve's was total upheaval it was a

11:37

revolution in the true sense of the word

11:39

an actual Revolution

11:41

we changed everything we changed the way

11:43

people dressed we changed the way men

11:46

wore their hair we changed the music we

11:48

listened to we changed the political

11:50

structure we made space for women women

11:53

to have more political rights movement

11:56

to have more economic rights we made

11:58

space for black people we made space for

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brown people we didn't make everybody

12:02

equal by any means

12:05

that would be naive and silly and

12:07

foolish to think but at least it got

12:09

better

12:10

we changed our relationship to drugs to

12:13

marriage to sex to everything

12:16

and Nixon and his folk hated every

12:19

moment of him it was torture for them

12:22

they wanted the old order returned and

12:26

so he says no

12:27

he says no to NASA

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so they start begging

12:32

and they're trying to get something out

12:34

of this and somebody has the idea

12:37

two two planets what if we compromise

12:40

how about this Mr President just give us

12:42

two planets Jupiter and Saturn

12:45

and the president goes okay

12:47

just two planets

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which is of course brilliant on NASA's

12:53

part

12:54

because all they have to do is launch

12:55

the probe at the first two planets and

12:57

it'll automatically get the other two

13:00

in 1977 after launching Voyager 2 NASA

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changes its course

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so that it will officially pick up

13:08

Uranus and Neptune

13:11

and we did and Voyager one and two of

13:13

course get to go down and history is the

13:15

greatest probes ever sent into space

13:18

they're amazing

13:21

so

13:23

Nixon interfering with NASA

13:26

maybe not the worst thing to ever happen

13:29

to the world but it has a serious

13:31

consequence

13:33

the Saturn V rocket that we launched to

13:35

the moon was never intended for the moon

13:37

Phantom Braun didn't care about the moon

13:40

we cared about Mars the whole goal was

13:43

that the moon was going to be the first

13:45

step to Mars that's where we were going

13:48

and so that same year NASA got stuck

13:50

asking the president permission to also

13:52

go to Mars and he said absolutely not

13:56

we're not wasting American taxpayer

13:58

dollars that could be used to cut taxes

14:00

for the rich and fight the war in

14:03

Vietnam

14:05

and so

14:07

he said no so they had a backup plan

14:09

they said okay how about this Mr

14:11

President what if we design test and use

14:16

a space pickup truck

14:19

and he goes a space pickup truck what's

14:21

that

14:22

the space shuttle obviously it's the

14:23

spaceship with a payload in the back

14:25

that you can put things in it and he

14:27

goes oh I can relate to pickup trucks

14:29

and I bet the American public can too

14:30

and he approves it now in NASA's mind

14:33

they thought they were manipulating the

14:35

president again they thought what they

14:37

were going to get was this the space

14:38

shuttle to build a space station by

14:40

bringing stuff up to it and then once

14:42

they had the space station they would

14:44

bring the stuff up to build a spaceship

14:45

to go to Mars off the space station this

14:48

is the first necessary step and here we

14:51

are it's 2023 and we're not really close

14:55

we haven't gotten to Mars what they

14:57

needed the president to do was do a

15:00

Kennedy Kennedy said by the end of this

15:02

decade we'll be on the moon

15:04

they needed the president to say by the

15:06

end of this Century we'll be on Mars he

15:09

didn't

15:10

so there are consequences at that level

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but actually

15:15

there are consequences that are way

15:17

worse than that

15:19

Nixon tried to identify what was the

15:23

causes what were the causes of that

15:26

Revolution that we call the 1960s

15:29

and he and his friends concluded there

15:31

were two two things that caused this

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one

15:36

was the incredible U.S economy

15:39

from 1948 to 1973 for 25 years the U.S

15:44

economy was so amazing

15:46

that you could conceivably get a job I

15:50

mean a regular job I don't mean an

15:52

amazing job

15:53

just a job

15:56

and the pay would be so high

15:59

and the benefits so amazing that you

16:02

could not only afford to buy a house and

16:05

feed your family you might be able to

16:07

send your kids to school

16:09

to college and and you might be able to

16:12

retire really well

16:15

picketty says in his book the capital in

16:18

the 21st century that that was the only

16:19

time in fact in human history where a

16:23

person could work and make wealth

16:27

right because if you look at the middle

16:29

class today in the United States they

16:31

don't make wealth they barely get by

16:33

the difference between the middle class

16:35

and the lower class is that the middle

16:36

class has stable housing and the lower

16:38

class doesn't have stable housing the

16:41

wealth distance between the lower class

16:43

and the middle class is negligible it's

16:45

meaningless

16:46

they're barely getting by but for 25

16:49

years

16:51

people were prospering

16:54

and what they realize is Maslow's

16:56

hierarchy of needs if people aren't

16:58

fretting about food if they're not

17:00

worried about shelter if they're not in

17:02

constant fear that the economic

17:03

situation they're in will collapse they

17:06

have mind space to start to ask bigger

17:08

and better questions like wait a minute

17:10

what about civil liberties what about

17:12

civil rights what about human rights

17:14

and the next thing you know by 1954 six

17:18

years into this explosive economy we're

17:21

in the middle of a revolution

17:25

the other thing that Nixon identifies as

17:27

a problem is our education system now if

17:31

you if I say that today the American

17:33

education system usually people laugh

17:35

and by the way that's appropriate so

17:38

feel free to go ahead and do it right

17:39

now

17:40

so I'm a college professor I've been at

17:43

this I've been a Prof I've been a

17:45

teacher for 28 years I think something

17:47

like that

17:48

and I have to tell you I have a steady

17:51

stream of students who've just basically

17:53

never held an idea in their brains and

17:55

their lives

17:56

and they can barely read and they can't

17:58

do math

18:00

it's not a thing

18:01

they whip out their phone their external

18:03

brain and they use that instead and then

18:07

I think wow but when you think like when

18:09

you learn math it builds neural Pathways

18:11

in your brain so that means that part of

18:13

their brain isn't developed which means

18:15

they think differently than I do which

18:18

is fascinating

18:20

it could be a power maybe having a

18:22

mathematical brain or a mathematically

18:24

trained brain limits you in some way but

18:27

at the same time it makes me worried

18:30

especially when I read the essays

18:32

and then being getting to cry

18:35

so

18:38

what Nixon tries to do is begin to chip

18:41

away at the American education system on

18:44

purpose

18:45

he doesn't really do that much damage

18:47

honestly he doesn't do that much damage

18:48

to the economy either but he does damage

18:51

the economy 1973 is is pretty much the

18:54

high point to the American Empire for

18:57

those who haven't figured it out we've

18:58

been in Decline for 50 years

19:01

1973 was our Apex it was our height but

19:04

it was also the moment

19:06

when we had the most egalitarian society

19:08

we've ever had

19:09

there was class Mobility

19:12

the distance from the poorest person the

19:13

richest person was really really low

19:16

and it was a time of innovation I mean

19:19

we landed on the moon that wasn't a bad

19:21

thing to do think of how primitive the

19:23

computers were they were so awful

19:27

that they had to hire mathematicians to

19:31

double check the results from the

19:33

computers because they knew the

19:35

computers weren't reliable they could

19:37

get the answer quickly but they couldn't

19:39

get it to you accurately

19:41

they were black women we put them in

19:43

back rooms don't worry nobody had to

19:45

know about it

19:47

they would call computers that was their

19:49

title that was their job title

19:52

so

19:56

Nixon doesn't quite do all the damage

19:59

but he does some and by many

20:00

socioeconomic indicators the United

20:02

States starts to go backwards in 1973.

20:06

in other words in many ways the economy

20:09

in 1973 is something that most Americans

20:12

dream of and reminisce of it's our

20:15

imaginary moment when we think of the

20:18

economy

20:19

that the preserver nature wants to get

20:22

back to

20:24

so when a politician stands up and says

20:26

I'm going to do something like make

20:28

America great again they're thinking in

20:30

the 1973 economy when they hear that

20:32

they're thinking in 1953 sorry they're

20:35

thinking of

20:36

1853 when they think of the social order

20:40

so really they're here make America 19th

20:43

century again

20:45

Reagan is the guy who does the

20:47

destruction to the education system he

20:50

slashes funding is terrible we've had 40

20:54

Years of underfunded education

20:58

so why does all this matter

21:01

I'm going to give you since I've been

21:03

doing this NASA thing I'll give you one

21:04

more NASA thing

21:06

it's just to bring this home

21:09

so from

21:11

1962 to 1972 so for 10 years

21:16

that's when we built the Saturn V rocket

21:19

in my mind it's still the best rocket

21:21

ever I know the SLS has more is a little

21:23

bit more powerful but the Saturn V was

21:25

glorious

21:28

and when I say 1962 the first two years

21:31

were just designing the rocket they

21:33

didn't actually start building the

21:34

components until 64.

21:37

in today dollars it costs 10 billion

21:41

10 billion dollars

21:43

to do the Apollo program basically

21:46

when you think about it that's nothing

21:47

it was money well spent just just the

21:51

just the pictures back from the moon

21:52

were worth 10 billion

21:56

we decided that we're gonna jump start

21:58

the Space Program 50 years later what

22:01

have we been doing for 50 years

22:03

point to something we've achieved in the

22:04

last 50 years besides cell phones I was

22:07

going to reach for mine but I realized I

22:08

didn't have it on me

22:10

and we have these incredible computers

22:12

these handheld computers

22:13

okay that's great and the entertainment

22:17

man Hollywood can really knock it out of

22:20

the park TV these days incredible

22:25

but name something like truly do we cure

22:27

cancer

22:29

name something that we've done that's

22:31

Monumental in the last 50 years that

22:34

stands up to going to the Moon

22:36

a discovery we made Higgs boson was

22:39

pretty cool I remember exactly where I

22:41

was when Higgs boson was discovered I

22:43

was on a dirt road in Vermont driving

22:46

listening to BBC

22:48

cry because I couldn't believe how cool

22:51

it was

22:52

but that was just for a few nerds

22:55

something that the whole world could

22:57

look at and go wow this is incredible

22:58

this is the moment we've achieved

23:01

something

23:02

all the civilizations before us have

23:05

those things

23:08

there's something they can look to and

23:10

we did too until 50 years ago it's

23:13

almost like we decided we were done

23:15

we achieved what we wanted to we went to

23:17

the moon we were finished up we're going

23:19

to redo it we're going to go back to the

23:20

Moon

23:21

so we have to restart the whole space

23:23

program including building a rocket to

23:25

replace the Saturn V

23:29

that project

23:31

took 11 years

23:33

to build SLS

23:35

space launch system I feel like that's

23:38

the worst named rocket ever space launch

23:40

system isn't that a rocket did we just

23:43

name our rocket rocket

23:45

I feel like we named our rocket rocket

23:49

10 11 years 11 billion dollars

23:53

Saturn V was 10 years 10 billion dollars

23:56

let's just call it even right it's close

23:59

enough

24:00

what's an extra billion in an extra year

24:03

we built 15 Saturn V Rockets

24:08

we built two SLS

24:12

somehow 50 years ago we were seven and a

24:16

half times more productive 50 years ago

24:18

when our computers were so awful we had

24:21

to have a backup team check the math

24:23

50 years ago when we didn't have all the

24:26

Alloys and Plastics that we have today

24:29

same money so you can't blame it on the

24:32

funding

24:33

same amount of time so you can't say it

24:35

was rushed

24:36

how is it that 50 years ago we were so

24:39

much more Innovative that we could land

24:41

on the moon six times that we could link

24:43

up with the Soviets in space and we're

24:46

just now trying to re-figure all that

24:48

out all over again

24:51

and the answer is that the preserver

24:53

force in the United States economy was

24:55

so good so thorough that the United

24:58

States simply doesn't have the ability

24:59

to operate the way it used to

25:03

so here's my plea my plea is for world

25:06

leaders

25:07

not to give up on the preserver Force if

25:11

if the Innovative Force gets out of

25:13

balance that's not good it'll erode

25:15

things for for example history it's

25:18

quick to forget it's not interested in

25:20

the past or culture or Family Ties it's

25:23

dangerous

25:24

what I'm saying maybe is hold on to it a

25:27

little less tightly

25:29

so that when the Innovations come about

25:31

we can adapt

25:34

and engage more of the community

25:37

one of the things that's happened over

25:39

the course of the last 50 years in the

25:40

United States is it's college has become

25:43

more and more exclusive not inclusive

25:47

it's become so expensive that a person

25:49

has to ask themselves a really strange

25:51

question am I willing because right the

25:54

United States is such a strange place we

25:56

want to charge crazy amounts of tuition

25:59

for public

26:01

post-secondary education

26:03

do we really have enough MDS that we can

26:07

afford to to weed this out can weed them

26:10

out do we really have enough engineers

26:11

and the answer is obviously no the

26:13

United States is six percent Asian but

26:15

thirty percent of our MDS are Asian so

26:18

we've compensated for the fact that our

26:20

education system is terrible by just

26:22

importing and brain draining on the rest

26:24

of the world

26:26

what we should do is fix the education

26:28

system

26:29

so I keep saying 1853 is the thing

26:33

they're looking to because in the 1853

26:36

system white men like me are the only

26:39

people who have privilege and Power are

26:41

the only people who have a guaranteed

26:43

path to that I can be completely

26:45

mediocre and I still have a chance at it

26:49

well the United States is 59 white today

26:53

so 29 white men throw in class even if

26:57

you let half of the white man because

27:00

the other half were too poor to go

27:01

anywhere even if you let half of the

27:03

white man achieve you're down to 20 14

27:08

and a half percent 15 can you really

27:10

afford to throw away 85 percent of your

27:13

talent and my answer is not in 2023 in

27:18

2023 there are too many things that have

27:20

gone wrong the environment has gone

27:22

wrong our planet is destabilizing we're

27:24

90 Seconds To Midnight according to the

27:27

Doomsday Clock

27:29

we have some real problems and we're

27:31

going to have more pandemics in the

27:32

future actually frankly I think covid

27:34

was an easy one and I think we got

27:36

really lucky this I mean think of

27:39

Bubonic plague in smallpox this could

27:41

have gone really bad and it just didn't

27:45

we dodged that one

27:47

what we need to be doing is we need to

27:49

be harnessing our intellectual

27:50

capability

27:52

and also we need to remember something

27:54

that at some level the preserver Force

27:56

has it wrong

27:57

because the thing the preserver force is

27:59

preserving

28:01

was at the time the innovation

28:04

in other words through the lens of

28:07

history at the end of the day the

28:09

preserver and the innovator looked the

28:11

same in the past it's only now that

28:14

we're upset with it and obsessed with it

28:16

and freaking out and so on that note I

28:20

ask for more balance when it comes to

28:22

allowing change to happen in society

28:26

thank you

28:27

[Applause]

English (auto-generated)

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