Video Infoblog: Conversation with Jean Dong, Chinese Statecraft in a Changing World

Please join Professor Jeffrey Sachs and China expert, Jean Dong as they discuss Dong’s fascinating book, Chinese Statecraft in a Changing World: Demystifying Enduring Traditions and Dynamic Constraints. Ms. Dong offers a rich and subtle historical perspective on China’s statecraft, diplomacy, and national objectives. Her historically based analysis offers us great insights into the new geopolitics of our age. Together, Prof. Sachs and Ms. Dong explore the history and practice of Chinese statecraft, revealing its continuities and changes over long periods of history. They explore how geographical factors have shaped China's world outlook and approaches to international relations. Join this exciting conversation to gain a deeper understanding of the international politics of our world today. The Book Club with Jeffrey Sachs is brought to you by the SDG Academy, the flagship education initiative of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. Learn more and get involved at bookclubwithjeffreysachs.org.

Transcript

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[Music]

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welcome to book club with Jeffrey Sachs uh today I'm absolutely delighted to be

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joined in conversation with a a a scholar uh a policy expert uh and the

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author of an absolutely wonderful and very important book for our time uh will be with Jean dong who's a research

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fellow at the center for contemporary Chinese studies at the University of Melbourne and Jean has written a

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fantastic 2023 book which I want everyone to read because it's really important it's called Chinese statecraft

0:46

in a changing world and it is a book that helps us to understand uh how China

0:53

views the world so that we can more accurately also View and interact with China uh looking from outside from the

1:00

United States or from where Jean dong lives and works in Melbourne Australia

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so Jean thank you so much for being together with us and congratulations on

1:12

an absolutely wonderful book thank you Jeff it's my great pleasure to join your book club and talk

1:19

about my book I'd like people to know the book

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and I'd like people to know you you're a uh a rising very talented ented scholar

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um and you are Chinese born uh living in Australia and maybe you could tell us uh

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how how you got there sure so I'm Chinese Australian I was born and uh

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raised in a um small city in China called Kon um which was the capital city

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of the northern s Dynasty about a thousand um 200 years ago and I um came

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to Australia uh when I was 18 years old and I pursued my uh University education

2:06

and a pro uh and professional life here since then um and I uh consider myself

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very fortunate um I had the opportunity to witness and participate in China's

2:18

development um you know in my teenager time and then I also had the opportunity

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to observe China objectively from the outside um you know when I um uh

2:31

developed into my professional life so those experience um has helped me to

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have a more comprehensive and multi-dimensional perspective to

2:41

understand China but I think more importantly helps me to understand the

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origence of many different view points about China and also to think about how

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can I um help uh bre those differences yeah this is fantastic

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because uh I would say on so many issues in the world issues of War and Peace

3:06

issues of climate change issues of Economic Development uh a good strong

3:13

Cooperative of course sometimes competitive as well relationship of

3:19

China the United States Europe where you are Australia is going to be extremely

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important there aren't so many people like you expert uh knowledgeable uh a

3:32

student of history and knowing very well both uh Chinese uh civilizational

3:40

history and uh and Western history and as you say it's been kind of half and half in your lifetime um I think it's

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notable for everybody listening in uh Jean dong uh tells us she was born in

3:55

Kang of the northern s Dynasty Northern sung uh more than a thousand years ago

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and it's just uh for me uh the point of China China as a civilization is uh

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2,200 years old as a unified State roughly 10 times that of the United

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States uh or Australia for that matter uh so there's a lot of history it's a

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one of the world's great civilizations um and understanding that

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long long perspective I think is really vital to understanding China today and

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that's why I like your book so much because your book is not about uh what

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happened last year although it has that too uh but it's about how the long

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history of China has shaped China from an intellectual IDE ological political

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economic military point of view and this is something extremely important because

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I would say almost nobody in Western leadership really knows these things so

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they have to read your book as the first uh first primer but uh before uh

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everybody does that we're going to talk about it so you can introduce the the main themes and the book opens were by

5:29

the way really love analytically to open uh you

5:35

call it the grip of geography uh China has a distinctive geography it's different from United

5:42

States geography it's different from Australia's geography so in what in what way is China gripped by its geography

5:49

that shapes how Chinese leaders and Chinese

5:54

culture understand the world and interact with the world thank thank you Jeff so you're

6:01

absolutely right I think to understand China from a long history perspective I

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you really helps me to unpack many of the U New Perspectives um what I found

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is when I delve into the long history and particularly to identify what are

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the fundamental factors that have shaped China and this thinking being really

6:26

helpful because um I think it's not um you know

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helpful just to say China has done X because it has always done so it's very

6:37

important to look into the long history to identify what are the enduring

6:43

patterns and what are temporary transitions so in this way it helped us

6:49

to distinguish between shortterm tactics and the long-term strategy in dealing

6:55

with China and I found um geography is one of those uh long-term uring pattern

7:03

that shaped the China's statecraft um I was really int trigered by the

7:08

well-known uh British historian Joseph niden his research so he said that you

7:14

know he um in his research China is located in a very unique uh Monsoon

7:21

climate zone and this climate zone has left the China very vulnerable to

7:26

natural disasters and across China 2 years history there were no fewer than

7:35

1,621 flats and 1,39 92 BLS reported and that's on

7:43

average one major disaster in each year and more importantly those natural

7:50

disasters very often um has caused very severe famine and that famine has

7:57

contributed to five um you know out of China's 17 dynasties uh they collapse

8:05

and also in addition to you know those natural disaster andine China also has

8:10

very long and uh complex border which has consistantly exposed the country to

8:18

external invasions um you know with the Chinese Central plane has been conquered

8:23

by the normas at least eight times in history so all of those geographical

8:30

um conditions have shaped the China's core interest and the priority of its

8:36

statecraft as we can see you know China is incentivized to preserve domestic

8:43

stability to uh avoid Collective um destruction you know that's posed by

8:49

nature and also you know they want to pursue for economic growth for National

8:55

resilience and prosperity and they want to strength strengthen their military

9:00

capability for National Defense and what is more interesting is those historical

9:07

geographical condition still applied um today if we look at the China now um you

9:13

know China still grapples with many and frequent fls and drops every year and a

9:20

structure security ches and incate sometimes very anch notic border with 22

9:27

neighboring countries so so you know if you look at whole history and the geography it really has been this one of

9:34

the injuring factor that has shaped consistent the Chinese prior throughout

9:41

history I think it's a very important uh

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for uh us to understand this special these special features uh and I just

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want to underscore a few points for people listening think of the difference of

10:00

Great Britain an island nation which went out to colonize other nations so

10:06

relatively small place and then it sent out its uh Navy and it sent out its

10:14

explorers and it sent out its settlers to conquer and settle other lands uh the

10:22

United States a continent surrounded by two large oceans not endangered by by

10:29

Invasion from outside China is very interesting because on on the one hand

10:36

in a way it's protected on at least two maybe three of its four

10:42

sides because China on the uh West has

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the Himalayan uh mountains China on the East has the ocean uh China on the south

10:54

has the tropical rainforests that separate China from uh Southeast Asia

11:00

China on the North has the PLS which mean that it can and the steppins the

11:07

grasslands I should say which means that it can be invaded from the north so if you think of China roughly as a

11:14

rectangle the north is a problem uh and in fact was the place where China was invaded all the time but also China's

11:22

geography as a monsoon uh Society uh rice growing in

11:30

the South and grains in the North Wheat and barley and Millet in in the north uh

11:38

means a quite dense population so a lot of people to feed uh way back when

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hundreds of millions of people uh always a large part of the world population but

11:51

highly vulnerable as you say to the natural elements massive floods on the

11:57

Yellow River uh all the time uh and great losses of Life uh drought and so

12:03

on and I think uh as you put it you call it an isolated agrarian society and the

12:10

struggle uh to avoid Invasion from the north and to keep the society together

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and uh with enough food to eat it's not a country in its long history that has

12:22

gone out to conquer the rest of the world to go through Naval voyages to

12:28

make overseas Empires for example so it's a country that has from its

12:37

unification uh more than 2,000 years ago mainly looked to be unified internally

12:44

not to go out and Conquer new lands outside is that a is that a fair summary

12:50

absolutely Jeff absolutely and also um I see the geography does not only shape

12:56

China's priority you know for the Chinese state and also geography and to your point is

13:02

um uh is exactly you actually constrain China's ambition and also compel China

13:08

to make um trade-offs um as we can see you know China um grapples with this

13:14

land border security constantly so even now you know as China's Maritime

13:20

ambition increase and then now you know seems to project power beyond cross the

13:26

Pacific and the Indian Ocean this land board vulnerability will constrain

13:31

China's ambition because he uh immediately creates this two front

13:36

security threat from both the Sea and the land and also you just gave the example you know and uh when China um

13:44

faced the threat from the NORAD from the uh the northern uh Frontier China always

13:50

has has to balance its ambition during the Ming Dynasty China has to you know

13:56

give priority to the land security over Jung SE Expedition and also in the um

14:02

late uh in the 1960s when maong actually adopted a true adversary strategy to

14:10

against the us from the sea and Soviet Union from the land that experience

14:15

actually taught China about the accidential threat of picking two fights at the same time so I think the geograph

14:22

is actually a very vital factor to constrain China's ambition

14:29

yeah I think it's interesting for people to know it's uh one of the most remarkable uh moments of world history

14:36

in fact not just China's history but in the Ming Dynasty in the early

14:42

1400s from 1405 to 1433 uh the uh Ming Court sent out uh

14:51

great uh Naval Expeditions uh under this Admiral Admiral Jun uh and and uh China

14:59

ruled the Seas and if China had been Spain or

15:05

Portugal in its Outlook it probably would have gone to conquer uh and settle

15:11

uh colonies all over the Indian Ocean or East Africa maybe it would have circled

15:17

the Cape of Good Hope and South Africa and discovered the sea route to Europe

15:23

or even the Americas who knows but in 1433 the Ming Court said that's enough

15:31

we're threatened by Nomads from the north over land why do we have this big expensive Fleet uh and uh actually they

15:39

grounded the fleet they they disbanded uh this world's greatest oceangoing

15:47

Fleet hundreds of years ahead of what Europe could produce but China

15:52

unilaterally disbanded it really left the oceans for a very long time for

15:58

centuries basically left it to Europe so it was a moment of history but it's exactly what

16:04

you said the fear of two fronts uh China said we have to confront the nomadic

16:10

incursions from the northern step regions the grasslands we can't afford

16:15

an expensive Fleet on the ocean exactly and also you know today

16:21

China still face um this Challenge and uh and also China left the ocean for

16:27

centuries not until to the um reform and opening up you know when ding initiated

16:34

and then to really engage in the coastal city development and then you know China start to re-engage um on the maritime

16:41

trade as we can see now China has transformed Beyond a um single uh

16:48

Continental power attributes now to a country that proess both Continental

16:53

power and Maritime power attributes um and the data shows that China Maritime

17:00

trade has accounted for 95% of its total trade and almost 45% of

17:07

its total GDP so now we can see you know like China has really transformed but I

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think right now we see uh Maritime uh military build still very much around to

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defend Maritime trans uh the transportation line rather than a

17:26

outgoing um the Imperial ambition right so this is very uh important uh

17:36

China was very much an agrarian and very poor country

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throughout its history uh it fell far behind the industrialization process of

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uh the Western countries and its neighbor uh Japan which I think was

17:55

especially annoying for China because Japan in a way was supposed to be following China and then CH Japan became

18:03

the industrial power of East Asia at the end of the 19th century and invaded

18:08

China so that wasn't that was doubly unfair I would say in that sense but um

18:16

when in the last 45 years uh China reformed its economy became outward

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looking by the way with the big encouragement of the United States join the world economy uh the wisdom of

18:29

China's great reformer uh of that period dong Shao ping China began to trade on

18:38

the oceans uh and it became a a great trading uh Power but it also means that

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China's very dependent on its sea Lanes now uh it's dependent for its food

18:49

supply on the sea it's dependent for its energy especially from the Middle East

18:56

oil uh carried by hanker uh and uh China

19:02

fears that the United States has choke points on these SE Roots uh so China

19:09

looks at this and says well we want to be internationally engaged but we also

19:14

have concerns so can you explain what those concerns are because you discussed

19:19

them at some length in the book the first line and the second line and uh what is this issue because the US

19:26

interprets every move China makes say aggressive but I think your book explains it's quite from a defensive

19:33

point of view not from an aggression point of view absolutely so um as you just

19:39

mentioned Jeff now China is very concerned about its Maritime security from both economic perspective and a

19:47

geopolitical perspective um because really um the oil transportation is

19:53

China's Lifeline so um if we look at you know for example uh Taiwan as we can see

19:59

China now start to take more assertive stance towards Taiwan and of course you know there are strong political reason

20:06

uh and also uh the national listic concerns but beyond that if we look at

20:12

from the geopolitical perspective then Taiwan is located as the midpoint of the

20:19

first island chain and uh in a war time the first island chain could block China

20:25

um you know from its Transportation line and also cut of China's International Trade so I think that's the one of the

20:32

key concerns um you know for China because in a competitive Global World um

20:38

secured and constant access to Maritime resources is critical for you know many

20:45

many countries and just the fear of losing the access itself um to the Le

20:51

War as we can see in history you know Japan was one of the U examples and uh

20:57

so you see China now start to take more assertive stance towards Taiwan and also

21:03

in order to reduce its fear around the blockade around first island chain um we

21:09

see China now start to project power in the South Pacific and that's primarily

21:15

aimed at neutralizing the first island chain and uh you know hope to protect

21:21

power beyond the second or third island tank to deter potential opponent and

21:28

also we see you know China's um continuous military buildup in the South

21:33

China Sea um you know that's because South China Sea is very important to

21:38

China's true Ocean strategy which is you know for both Indian Ocean and Pacific

21:44

Ocean and I remember the you know renowned geopolitical expert Robert

21:49

Kaplan uh made a really good point he said is you know if you think about um

21:55

the uh the greater uh the indopacific is the uh as the Mediterranean Sea and

22:02

the South China Sea is located at the heart of the whole region and while

22:08

China face more firm us Alli and partners you know in the East for

22:14

example Japan South Korea and Taiwan the southeast Asia um you know countries and

22:21

also South chinae seems offer you know like more um you know freedom and to uh

22:27

to navigate for China to access both Indian and the Pacific Ocean so you know

22:33

that's you know where I see some of those underlying motive behind the China's action but you know this is not

22:40

to say um we have to agree or endorse China's action this is more to say to

22:47

understand the complex interplay of those motives but like I said you know

22:53

those military build up um you know is very concerning and we have to admonish

22:58

that but one important angle to look at that is the motivation behind those

23:04

action is for determination not um desperation so is China you know trying

23:12

to um you know determine to compete for a relative game and you know like with

23:18

United States and other countries you know to secure Maritime um the economy

23:23

and also geopolitical security to overcome disadvantage rather than say

23:29

you know engage in Imperial ambition and rightless actions you know for a uh you

23:36

know irresponsible uh like they uh to uh uh to very negatively to impact on the

23:42

global order I I think there's a very relevant

23:49

concept here uh and I think your analysis is is spot on uh my late

23:56

colleague at Columbia University Robert Jervis who was a an expert on international relations uh coined uh the

24:03

term security dilemma yes and what he meant by that was a psychological idea

24:09

that um that what looks to one country uh like an aggressive move uh actually

24:17

could be really a defensive move by the other side maybe the other side doesn't even want to declare it it as a

24:24

defensive move because that in itself uh shows of vulnerability but when China

24:31

strengthens its uh uh Navy for example uh or its military presence in the South

24:38

China Sea the United States uh jumps up and down and says you see China's

24:43

threatening the countries of Southeast Asia it's threatening the world it's threatening our allies uh whereas

24:50

China's view is this is defensive uh the US has surrounded us with the military

24:59

bases in Korea in Japan uh with the an alliance with Australia uh with military

25:07

bases in Southeast Asia all along our trade route are we supposed to just sit

25:12

there and be vulnerable to the United States no and so what looks to the US

25:17

like uh uh you know China uh being the new aggressor or threatening the

25:24

international order to China looks like a defensive action and I think that's

25:29

where your long history is really helpful if China had a 2,000-year

25:35

history of overseas Empire it that would be one thing but China has never had an

25:41

overseas Empire I don't know of a single Case by the way of China having an

25:47

overseas Empire in its 2,000-year history I may be wrong but I can't recall a single

25:54

case um no I don't think so um and also um I know know you know right now

25:59

China's aggressive military um build up you know cause many many um concerns and

26:05

uh so I think you know it's quite um important uh to you know to understand

26:11

to deal with China nowadays we need a multi fested approach um you know that

26:17

means um you know um I don't deny the importance and the necessity of the

26:23

economic and also the um you know even military um they deterrence to

26:29

counterbalance China's influence in those region but just in this age of

26:35

uncertainty and also the global uh world is filled by this distrust as you just

26:41

uh you know described just relying on this shortterm tactics you know could um

26:47

folding into this suity trap you know where this um conflict between and

26:53

Rising power and ASP power become inevitable and you age of nuclear weapon

26:59

we have just to approach this risk with utmost um caution I think you know

27:05

that's you know I in in the book I call for a multifaceted approach to deal with

27:10

st that's in addition to military deterrence you know we also need to

27:15

include um you know institutional engagement and also other means to address kind challenge we ensure we have

27:23

more safety and resilience uh you know in addressing the kind of challenge

27:30

I I'd like uh all the listeners to understand your reference to uh the fd's

27:35

Trap which is a term that's now being used and is the title of a book by a

27:42

former colleague of mine grahe Allison at Harvard University and it refers to

27:50

the uh the great history by the Greek historian thus cities of the pelian war

27:58

which was a war between uh Sparta on the one side and Athens on the other between

28:06

uh uh 431 BC and 4 BC and uh the claim of

28:14

thiddies is that the war arose because the dominant military power of the age

28:20

Sparta was threatened by the rising military power of the age which was

28:26

Athens uh they went to War uh it was a prolonged War I think the main lesson of

28:33

History I'm not sure that either Sparta or Athens knew it at the time but the

28:39

main uh lesson of history is that they both lost by that war even though Sparta

28:46

won the war so-called in uh in 404 BC uh

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it didn't really win the war because Sparta disappeared essentially from any

28:58

kind of leadership in the Greek World in The Next Century Athens was also

29:04

weakened it was horrible for both of them and the real lesson is that both the rising power and the leading power

29:11

should have avoided that disaster now in the time uh in the uh uh fifth century

29:19

BC they didn't have nuclear weapons so the consequences were uh to be bloodied

29:26

by this but not to be destroyed now the stakes are so much higher to avoid this

29:34

kind of trap and that can only come from understanding and and diplomacy and one

29:42

of the uh main themes uh of your book uh all the way through is not only how

29:50

geography uh and the realities of uh vulnerabilities of China shape China but

29:57

also how ideas shaped China just like they shape any of our societies and uh

30:05

the idea of Harmony uh seems to me to be a key part of

30:11

Chinese ideology dating back to confusion thought especially in the Han

30:17

Empire so uh 2,000 years ago uh and maybe you could say something about uh

30:25

this idea of core ideology Mandate of Heaven uh the need for uh a uh a

30:36

statecraft uh that works for the people uh the role of uh these Traditions uh in

30:45

China today sure um well in my perspective I

30:51

see contemporary China is a hybrid model so whereas you know the Marxism you know

30:58

seems like um acting as a national um ideology uh but I think the underlying

31:04

statecraft is heavily influenced by the Chinese traditional phological thinking

31:11

um you know the the joy rule of virtue and confusious uh rule of right and also

31:19

the legalism which is also um of law so it's really you know those combined

31:25

that's different phological thinking have shaped you know how China approach

31:30

its um statecraft and as you said Jeff um you know Harmony is a very key idea

31:36

if it's a China um I see is a um secular culture you know it's very pratic um

31:43

just because it graos so many internal challenges and external challenges it

31:49

cannot afford you know to uh make many um uh mistakes so you has to have this

31:56

very uh cautious approaches you know like to address the challenges and

32:01

harmonization is one of the key them you know that could to bring even people

32:07

together uh particularly you know during the uh Joe Dynasty uh where um the you

32:13

founded the phological thinking of China that's because when Jon when the Jo

32:18

Dynasty overthrown the Shan Dynasty J the J jordany has to rule a very big

32:26

country and a very big population by a relatively small population so at the

32:32

time they they already realized relying on force and a deterrence cannot be the

32:38

most effective and a sustainable way they have to think about you know what

32:44

are the Innovative institutional means and also you know values ethics they

32:49

could Inspire to bring people together and I think you know that inspired this uh jnasty rule of virtue and then later

32:58

on you know confusious uh his whole life effort to restore the Joe the Joe

33:03

Dynasty through uh the rule of virtue he also uh to um to develop the very strong

33:09

you know understanding of you know like a confusion uh the the confusion thinking so I think you know that's a

33:17

like historical U sort of inertia it's not to relying on TOs and the deterrence

33:23

rather than you know thinking about institutional ways to address

33:30

challenges yeah it's so it it's really wonderful and again I think maybe the

33:37

saddest part of the ignorance that I find in the United States and um in in

33:43

other places when when we hear about China in uh in the United States we

33:49

always hear Chinese Communist Party Chinese Communist party and uh in the US

33:56

the word communist triggers all sorts of uh strange associations anyway it's a

34:03

just the emotionally the most negative word uh in in the American political

34:10

lexicon and it's been used for fear uh it has always been uh a a a a word of uh

34:19

that that is viewed uh in in the most extreme negative way and our politician

34:27

s tend to view China through that word they don't understand at all what it

34:33

really means right now it's a historical word it's a party that unified modern China and created the People's Republic

34:40

of China but like you say it's a very pragmatic pragmatic party it doesn't

34:46

hone to any strict ideology it's created this market economy which is completely

34:52

different for example from the communism of the Soviet Union couldn't be more

34:57

different um but the word itself you know conveys this uh in incredibly

35:04

negative light but when I look at China that's not the word that I start with

35:12

for me China has this very deep

35:17

persistence uh because China looks to me a lot like uh the Han Dynasty a lot like

35:24

the Chin Dynasty it's the same geography it's a centralized administrative State

35:30

uh it has a a a a very sophisticated uh bureaucracy which has

35:37

been the tradition of China for 2,000 years and in this sense I see more

35:44

continuity than a word of uh than a word communism or a particular

35:53

party I see a lot of continuity in China and inent L my own experience having

35:59

worked all over the world is political cultures are very deeply continuous even

36:06

when economies change Russia to me looks a lot lot like the Zar still uh it looks

36:12

a lot like uh the zaris regime okay which had its strengths and it's very

36:18

different political culture but it's there's a persistence in this that we should appreciate and not simply put

36:26

very simple-minded labels to it but I I'd

36:32

like the emphasis because I think it's exactly right Jean what you say is

36:38

pragmatic and cautious uh and uh this is also how the reforms have been uh

36:46

extremely intelligent uh but very practical uh of course the most famous

36:52

expression of the greatest reformer dong sha ping is it doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white as long as it

36:58

catches the mice so the ultimate in pragmatism uh and don't put labels on

37:04

things and the other famous expression is cross the river stepping one stone at

37:10

a time so be be cautious uh no uh you know that you have a firm footing underneath you as you cross cross the

37:17

river so I think that this is a a very very important uh point of all of this

37:25

you say that uh in in your conclusion after you've looked at the issues of geography uh the

37:34

uh traditional ideas uh the way that the political system works the current

37:41

military buildup and it's uh and its uh uh nature uh you you then say that we

37:49

are at a Crossroads uh I don't think you use that but you say we're at the

37:55

Confluence of two long Cycles of state power and of Technology could

38:00

you explain that concept because I think that's also very very important and correct thank you Jeff um I think you

38:08

know you just explain the TR and I know um you know like many people seems to

38:15

understand China us relation from that angle and I also know you know sometimes people people use cold war or even World

38:23

War analogy to describe where we are now I think a probably they are not um

38:29

accurate and not um sufficient um I think you know the world we are living

38:34

in now is fundamentally changed and um you know so it's beyond ideology I think

38:41

that um angle uh actually highlight and embed the danger in the current Global

38:47

State of Affair you know that is refusal or failure to acknowledge the changing

38:54

conditions of global Landscapes and the J genuine uh conflicts and changes

39:00

arising from that and just simply disguise them as ideological Clash I

39:06

think you know that thinking would probably encourage more uh you know excessive uh conservatism and also you

39:13

know maybe misguide the problem solving efforts so how do I make sense of the

39:19

world is to you know go back to long history looking at Cycles so um I see we

39:25

are currently really is in a phase of transition um you know on the

39:32

technological cycle uh we are transitioning arguably from the third Industrial Revolution marked by

39:40

Information Technology Internet to the fourth Industrial Revolution marked by

39:46

uh AI Quantum Computing uh new materials and from energy perspective we

39:53

transitioning from the F age and to a renewable energy a you know hydrogen

40:00

solar or even nuclear um they energy and then from the do political persective we

40:06

are transitioning from an us dominant to the world order to a multipolar world

40:13

order so I think those transition have brought this significant change to the

40:19

world we're living in now it Port us to the world um of poly crisis you know

40:26

where we must navigate many unprecedented and interconnected Chang

40:33

climate change AI societal transformation he also brought us to the

40:38

age of known unknowns um which we know about those

40:43

changes we will significantly they redefine um you know who we are and the

40:48

world we're living in but the full extent and the details of those changes

40:54

are unclear and let alone you any effective solutions to address those

41:00

challenges and also it brought to the uh the age of surprise you know the pmic

41:07

the Russian invasion in Ukraine and many other black SW events the could catch us

41:15

completely so I think you know um as we can see um on the history shows when

41:21

International System grapples with limited economic growth and great

41:27

uncertainty is the very dangerous transition point it often you know leads

41:33

to short-term thinking uh you know zero some thinking and also a very dismissive

41:39

um understanding of the world so now we witnessing you know the great power

41:45

rivalry uh the Imperial ambition fight over resources from economic perspective

41:53

um the seemingly rational global economic environment now is being

41:58

replaced by this far more complex systematic rivales uh between entangled

42:05

Nations um where values and uh those um you know and those self-interest have

42:13

overtaken commercial calculation so I think right now you know I see it's

42:19

really the time uh we need the leadership we need the courage to undertake some both reform that could

42:28

really boost productivity income gain and also Inspire new Global governance

42:33

model that could help us smoothly manage this current phase of transition and

42:40

enable us to imagine and hopefully you know build a radically different world

42:47

by enabling paradigm shift and I see you know China us should compete on this

42:54

front um you know competition itself is not challenging if there are clear

43:00

Frameworks to guide you know diverse political system to be competitive

43:06

without confrontation I think you know we should encourage China us to compete

43:11

you know for the future you know to see um which system could help us to develop

43:19

this um new value and asset bring people

43:24

together and identify this new new pass of Shield Prosperity I think that's you

43:30

know what I like to see yeah thank you very much very well

43:37

put and um let me add on the political cycle I think there are uh three uh time

43:46

dimensions of this that we should note one is that the time of uh the

43:52

US basically almost unrival leadership uh has ended that's been roughly 75

44:00

years since the end of World War II until now I there has been about 200

44:06

years of I would say Anglo-Saxon leadership because before the United States the dominant power was Britain uh

44:14

Britain uh of course invaded China in 1839 in the first Opium Wars that gave

44:20

China very hard time for a very long time it owned or operated Hong Kong Kong

44:27

after all off the the coast of China as an

44:32

imperial possession for a long time so it's been 200 years of anglosaxon

44:39

dominance and I would say it's been around 500 years of Western ascendency

44:46

or control because it really was when China withdrew from the oceans and

44:52

Europe entered the oceans uh at the beginning of uh the

44:57

1500s that really changed the balance of power between Europe and Asia and it was

45:05

of course in the 19th century that Europe became so dominant and in the

45:11

20th century the United States so powerful and all of this is now changing to a true multi-polar world where China

45:19

is absolutely one of the the great uh parts of the world and from my point of

45:25

view wonderfully so because it's one of the great civilizations of the world uh as as well uh and uh it it brings me to

45:35

your final uh point that competitiveness without confrontation I think this is a

45:42

wonderful wonderful observation and I would say that uh one of the lessons of

45:49

uh history looked for a long period is that Innovation and learning has flow

45:57

both ways from east to west and from west to east uh and in a long period

46:05

from roughly uh 500 AD to 1500 ad uh it

46:12

was definitely from China to the West that the technology flowed your

46:19

birthplace Kang uh capital of Northern song that was a time of incredible uh

46:27

flowering of of technology and learning and the song period gave so many

46:34

remarkable things to to the world but especially Technologies to uh Europe

46:41

then after 1500 and especially after around 1700 the technology started to flow the other

46:48

way the lessons flowed the other way uh mainly from Europe and China struggled

46:54

to catch up and fell behind uh and you talk about that uh you have a

47:00

section called you will be beaten if you fall behind because that was one of the lessons of China in the 19th and early

47:06

20th centuries but now I'm convinced we're going to learn in both directions

47:12

so I think China has an enormous amount to teach the United States it's China's

47:18

10 times older and a lot wiser in many ways in my view I hope the US can be a

47:24

good student as well I'm sure that there will continue to be good ideas flowing

47:30

in the other direction and as you say competition without confrontation would

47:35

allow for that Mutual learning uh a uh a mutual Advance each one uh playing its

47:43

part and so I think your vision is extremely correct the book is really

47:49

wonderful Jean I want to congratulate you and uh I think it's very very timely

47:56

um I'm Afra afraid our time is up right now but again for all the listeners

48:01

please uh get a copy of Chinese statecraft in a changing World by Jean

48:07

dong really learn about China's long history it will take away many of your

48:13

fears it will greatly increase your understanding and it will greatly uh

48:19

raise the uh the likelihood of a very

48:25

constructive uh interchange of East and West in the 21st century so Jean dong

48:30

thank you so much for being with the book club with Jeffrey saaks today it's been great to be with you it's a

48:37

fantastic book and I look forward to more wisdom coming from you and coming

48:42

from your research thanks so much thank you Jeff it's my great honor

48:50

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