Video Infoblog; World Waits for Retaliation as Iran, Hezbollah Vow Response to Israeli Attacks w/ Ehsan Safarnejad

11 Aug 2024

The wait continues, as key members of the Axis of Resistance, Iran and Hezbollah, have vowed that there will be retaliation against Israel's string of attacks and assassinations that included the killing of a Hezbollah commander in Beirut, and the Hamas political chief in Tehran. Ehsan Safarnejad, an Iran-based journalist and geopolitical analyst, noted the fact that there wasn't an immediate response shouldn't come as a surprise, and Iran's previous response to an Israeli attack back in April came two weeks after Israel bombed an Iranian consulate building in Syria. As for what the retaliation will look like, and who will be involved? That still remains to be seen, as Israel's targeting of Iran, Hezbollah and Ansar Allah in Yemen has left a range of possibilities open, as Netanyahu seems to be begging the region for a wider war.

Transcript

Intro

0:00

it is August 9th 2024 and it has been

0:03

more than a week since Israel carried

0:05

out a string of attacks that included

0:07

the assassination of Palestinian

0:09

Diplomat and Hamas political Chief is

0:11

malania while he was on a visit to ton

0:15

now Iran has said that they are planning

0:17

a response Hezbollah has said that they

0:19

are also preparing a response but when

0:22

is it going to come how is it going to

0:24

happen and who is going to be involved

0:28

those are the questions that we continue

0:30

to ask right the Mysteries that are out

0:32

there but even though the US and Israel

0:35

are in a position of kind of seeming to

0:38

say get this retaliation over with the

0:41

reality is that they don't get to choose

0:43

the timeline and that's part of it at

0:45

the end of the day but should we really

0:47

be surprised that Iran didn't just

0:49

respond immediately well if we look back

0:52

to what they did in April when they were

0:54

retaliating against Israel for its

0:57

targeted attack on an Iranian consulate

1:00

building in Syria we have to remember

1:02

that didn't just take days that took a

1:04

couple of weeks and there were a number

1:06

of reasons why a number of reasons why

1:09

we're not seeing immediate retaliation

1:11

now and still a lot of questions about

1:14

what we could see and when it could

1:16

happen so we discussed all of that

1:18

earlier with a special guest so let's

1:20

take a listen to that conversation now

1:23

joining me now to discuss is isan saern

1:26

NAD an iran-based journalist who shares

1:28

analysis on news geopolitics Iran the

1:32

Middle East Russia China and the global

1:34

South asan thanks so much for taking the

1:37

time to join

1:38

me thank you for inviting me on your

1:41

show I want to get your take on the

The atmosphere in Iran right now

1:43

latest here I know that the world is

1:45

currently waiting to see when and of

1:48

course how Iran and Hezbollah

1:50

specifically will respond to the attacks

1:53

and assassinations carried out by Israel

1:55

last week that included the killing of a

1:57

senior Hezbollah commander and the

2:00

political chief of Hamas who was in tyon

2:02

for a visit what is the atmosphere like

2:05

there in Iran right now as we're kind of

2:08

in this waiting

2:10

period Well some people are really

2:12

anxious to see the Iranian retaliation

2:15

and since people have shortterm memory

2:18

problems apparently they have forgotten

2:21

that the last time that an attack by the

2:24

Israeli side uh was carried out on the

2:26

Iranian Consulate in Syria uh it was on

2:30

April 1st and it took Iran two weeks uh

2:34

to respond the Iranian retaliation took

2:37

place on April 14th so you know based on

2:41

that framework based on that uh time

2:44

frame I think that uh we're still uh

2:48

waiting the appropriate amount of time

2:50

and it is consistent with the Iranian

2:53

Moder and the uh that it takes it time

2:57

with designing the operation and

2:59

deciding which targets is going to uh

3:03

hit or strike uh in an in a reatory

3:06

response so in that term in that case uh

3:11

everything is fine all these rumors that

3:13

are circulating around online um some of

3:17

them are due to the fact that people are

3:19

really anxious to see the latest

3:23

developments and the media Outlets are

3:26

sort of taking that into their own

3:28

advantage uh in order to get more likes

3:31

but uh still uh by the time that you and

3:36

I are having this conversation uh there

3:39

is no official Outlet news any video any

3:43

interview that would indicate where we

3:46

are when we are going to see the

3:49

retaliation uh is just here say and the

3:54

sources that are putting out the the

3:56

news are not the best ones in terms of

4:00

their history uh they have published a

4:02

lot of fake news and you know they they

4:05

even endorsed Wars in their own way um

4:09

so in in terms of that there is nothing

4:12

new to say all we know is that

4:16

retaliation will happen the retaliation

4:19

will come mainly from Iranian side but

4:22

different froms different fronts will be

4:25

involved in the

4:27

retaliation uh this was a an statement

4:30

made by the

4:32

Iranian chief of Iranian Secretary of

4:36

the Supreme national uh

4:40

Council uh who who is a very important

4:44

figure in you know deciding the Iranian

4:47

security decisions So based on that we

4:50

know that again the the main operation

4:53

will be carried out by Iran but

4:55

different fronts will will operate now

4:57

this is uh my assessment that uh

5:01

probably the resistance groups in Iraq

5:04

Lebanon and Yemen will uh in will be

5:08

involved in such attack but again I

5:11

think that these we are going to see it

5:14

in two different chapters if you can

5:16

think of it as that uh a chapter in

5:19

which Iran will strike is Israel and the

5:23

next chapter will be uh the attack by

5:26

other

5:28

fronts okay that's good to know and to

Israel wants a regional war

5:31

keep in mind and I know that there have

5:33

been a lot of comparisons drawn to what

5:35

we saw back in April when you're right I

5:38

mean we did have that waiting period

5:40

Then and it it almost kind of seemed

5:43

like the US and Israel specifically like

5:48

they expected more of a retaliation from

5:51

Iran like you had Israel wanting a

5:54

regional War back then in April how do

5:57

you view that compared to this current

5:59

situation where given the string of

6:02

assassinations and attacks that Israel

6:04

carried out it almost feels like they

6:06

are begging the axis of resistance for a

6:10

wider War begging them to get involved

6:12

so that they can go to war and then drag

6:14

the us into

6:16

it well the key point was what you

6:19

mentioned they want a regional War which

6:23

United States would fight for them they

6:25

don't want a regional or broader War you

6:28

see vers published an article uh on I

6:33

think it was AR if I'm not mistaken in

6:36

which he explained why Netanyahu

6:38

actually doesn't want a war and you know

6:42

Israel on its own is completely

6:44

completely incapable of uh fighting a a

6:48

broader war and that's very

6:51

understandable it's due to its inherits

6:55

nature the characteristics of uh you

6:58

know the the occupied Palestine that it

7:01

doesn't give you a lot of sphere of

7:04

influence so they're very limited

7:06

they're surrounded by different

7:09

countries and you know they don't have

7:11

too much of a wiggle room in order to

7:13

experiment with you know a concept like

7:17

a broader regional conflict now the

7:20

trick is in and this is what they do

7:24

through mad they try to lay these traps

7:27

in a way uh in in the way of the exess

7:31

of resistance they want to trick the

7:33

exess of resistance into

7:36

retaliating in a manner that then every

7:41

everybody forgets about all the raping

7:43

all the massacre genocide bombing of

7:47

civilians indiscriminant killing

7:50

murdering maming torturing that all of

7:53

this then would be sidelined by the

7:55

images and the footages that will then

7:58

would come out of uh you know different

8:01

parts of the occupied Palestine uh video

8:06

footages of sers being wounded and that

8:09

is something that Iran and the AIS of

8:12

resistance tries its best in order to

8:16

prevent you know they're not going to

8:18

give them what they want however this

8:20

doesn't mean that they automatically shy

8:22

away from

8:24

responding uh which is a basic uh right

8:27

of any country who sovereignty has been

8:30

violated by another uh nation state or

8:34

any other group to have a shot at a

8:37

retaliatory response uh the previous

8:41

time with regards to what happened the

8:44

previous time uh what happened was

8:48

exactly what Iran wanted Iran's main

8:51

objective was as follows one Iran was

8:55

trying to establish a president now when

8:58

you and I are talking about what is

9:01

going to happen in future uh I can bring

9:05

up the fact that previous time around

9:08

Iran struck Israel and no broader

9:12

conflict uh erupted so this is something

9:16

that people can lie on rely on in order

9:19

to have theories right and in a way Iran

9:22

tried its best in order to De

9:24

incentivize people apologies desensitize

9:28

people so that they wouldn't behave the

9:32

same way that you know they might have

9:35

reacted if you know

9:38

broader damage would have been done to

9:41

the occupied Palestine Israel the

9:43

Israeli regime and that was something

9:46

that Iran was very successful at doing

9:48

establishing a president now the second

9:51

thing which Iran did and this was very

9:54

apparent from the footages that we seen

9:57

we saw last time

10:00

uh Iran wanted to send this message

10:04

convey this uh you know message that it

10:08

can uh reach Israel when it's most ready

10:13

and show how vulnerable it is let me

10:17

elaborate uh there is a very distinct

10:20

video footage that came out last time

10:23

and it is the precise moment that you

10:26

can see that the air defense systems are

10:28

running out of ammunition and

10:30

interceptor missile well this is

10:33

basically for those who are not really

10:36

familiar with you know military military

10:39

weaponry this is the equivalent of that

10:42

moment in movies that you see the

10:44

protagonist has a has a gun in his hand

10:46

and he shoots until he draws blank the

10:49

magazine goes empty now in a comical you

10:52

know scenes films and movies tend to

10:55

show that the main character with then

10:58

throw the gun

10:59

so uh it doesn't matter if you have

11:02

Arrow two Arrow three and how much you

11:05

brag about having the most sophisticated

11:08

air defense system which are arguable

11:11

you know in a way uh and there are other

11:14

things to talk about as well so there

11:16

are the demon the demons are in the

11:19

details but uh it doesn't matter how

11:22

sophisticated your systems are uh when

11:25

you don't have any missiles any bullet

11:27

to put in your gun your gun is as good

11:30

as useless uh and that was something

11:33

that Iran showed that it can easily

11:35

oversaturate the air defenses the air

11:37

defense systems of the Zionist regime

11:40

another thing that Iran showed was how

11:43

sophisticated its technology is Iran

11:46

only used uh you know decade and a half

11:50

17 year old missiles not very

11:53

sophisticated missile the only missile

11:55

that had you know some bazaz or some you

11:59

know interesting concept behind it

12:03

was that it it uses a maneuverable

12:06

reentry vehicle and what this basically

12:09

means is that the Warhead is capable of

12:12

changing its trajectory in order to

12:15

evade the air defenses of the the enemy

12:20

and uh well basically Iran was

12:24

successful in doing all three of these

12:26

things establishing a predent showcasing

12:29

that it can easily overpower the Israeli

12:32

regime in an

12:33

allout uh War scenario and the third

12:37

part was to show how how it possesses

12:41

the real ability and technology and this

12:44

is not just quantity that we are talking

12:47

about it is the quality of the Iranian

12:49

Warheads that speak for themselves on

12:52

the battlefield Iran carried out these

12:55

messages very clearly but apparently the

12:59

message wasn't received in Tel Aviv as

13:02

well as it could have and that's why you

13:05

have this uh new development and this

13:08

new episode and based on the interviews

13:13

the very Broad and general statements

13:16

that were given by the generals in the

13:18

irgc in the Iranian Armed Forces in

13:21

general uh they're going to respond uh

13:25

in a forceful manner this time you know

13:28

they're going to R of escalation in a

13:31

way and the objective of this episode is

13:35

to take what was established as a

13:38

precedent and take it into a new Norm

13:41

which then you know you would you and

13:44

you know many people inside west the

13:46

analysts uh then they would view this as

13:50

a as something not uh an as not an

13:54

outlier but something that is more

13:57

common than what people think and then

14:00

maybe after this all the hysteria about

14:04

you know Iranian response erupting and

14:07

causing World War II would then end you

14:12

know uh because it is within the Iranian

14:15

right to have a retaliatory strike on

14:18

Israel uh due to the fact that its

14:21

sovereignty has been violated by the

14:23

Zionist

14:25

regime yeah and I appreciate the

Irans ties with Russia

14:27

explanation there it's interesting to

14:29

see how we have Iran kind of in this

14:32

place of balancing everything right on

14:34

one hand they also they want to stand up

14:37

for the Palestinians in Gaza who are

14:40

being targeted by Israel in this

14:42

genocidal war on the other hand they're

14:44

now in a position of having to you know

14:47

respond to Israel after it carried out

14:50

this assassination of a guest in tyan

14:54

and you also have in addition to I know

14:57

that the US is kind of a party to this

15:00

conflict I thought it was also

15:01

interesting that you had Russia send the

15:04

Secretary of its Security Council to

15:06

Tyron for talks late last week and

15:09

you've had some talk on social media

15:11

saying that you know Russia is sending

15:13

weapons to Iran I know that there hasn't

15:15

been any official confirmation on that

15:17

but how do you view Iran's ties with

15:20

Russia and kind of where Iran stands

15:23

especially with countries like Russia

15:26

where they have come in to I say Provide

15:29

support but also to stand up against the

15:32

west and everything that is coming

15:34

against

15:35

Iran well uh the meeting between Master

15:39

Shu and uh you know the Iranian senior

15:44

officials was planned a long time before

15:48

this he is uh here at the he was here at

15:50

the invitation of the

15:53

Iranian uh Secretary of Na Supreme

15:57

National Security Council

15:59

uh and this was long this was something

16:03

that was long planned uh so it doesn't

16:06

have a particular tie to the recent

16:09

developments of in the region I'm sure

16:13

that the topic was brought up uh in the

16:16

bilateral talks that U

16:19

Mr the Iranian uh Secretary of supreme

16:24

National Security Council had with his

16:26

counterpart in Russia uh I'm sure that

16:29

the topic was discussed but uh you know

16:32

people always tend to you know

16:35

exaggerate these kind of meetings uh it

16:38

didn't have any particular uh tie with

16:42

the current development in the region

16:45

however Iran and Russia are strategic uh

16:50

allies of one another obviously uh Iran

16:54

is helping Russia in evading sanctions

16:57

in different ways Iran has been dealing

16:59

with sanctions for years now you know

17:03

for almost 40 years uh it has now

17:06

experts that are really knowledgeable

17:10

about different ways and methods that

17:12

you can circumvent sanctions in order to

17:14

ease the pressure that they will enforce

17:18

on the on your population and that's a

17:20

way that Iran was helping back at at the

17:24

earlier stages of the war between Russia

17:27

and Ukraine

17:29

uh the minister of Transportation in

17:33

Russia gave us an interview in which he

17:35

talked about how Iranian side is helping

17:39

Russia in procuring uh plane Parts uh

17:43

that they would be able to maintain

17:45

their you know airliners you might also

17:48

find it interesting that Iran uh also

17:51

maintains and overhauls the Russian

17:54

airliners for example there was this

17:57

Airbus airplane

18:00

a300 hph

18:02

330 uh that was flown to Iran in order

18:06

to be maintained by the Iranian expert

18:09

the the collaboration doesn't end here

18:12

Iran exports uh tires you know home

18:17

appliances construction materials uh to

18:21

Russia as well Iran builds sophisticated

18:24

gas turbines that Russia uses because it

18:28

wants to export gas obviously a country

18:30

that is that has the largest gas

18:33

reserves in the world uh is in need of

18:37

you know gas turbines and Iran does a

18:39

hell of a job of building those uh so in

18:44

this kind of a strategic chice uh both

18:47

in economic uh Affairs as as I mentioned

18:52

and Military Affair uh like the war in

18:56

Syria which the two countries fought

18:59

against the extremist fundamentalist

19:02

forces of Isis and you know their their

19:05

collaboration on the security situation

19:07

in South Caucasus the terrorism uh of

19:11

Isis K uh which is a branch of Isis that

19:15

is predominantly present in Central Asia

19:19

the collaboration of two countries in

19:21

organizations like bricks Shanghai

19:24

cooperation organization and uh

19:27

different organization

19:30

Regional

19:31

organizations like um the uh the Euro

19:35

the

19:36

Eurasian

19:38

uh basically group uh these are all

19:42

things that uh you know makes Iran and

19:45

Russia really close so this wasn't out

19:47

of the ordinary and uh and I'm sure that

19:50

they will continue but having said all

19:54

of this these meetings can be postponed

19:59

and the fact that it wasn't uh in a way

20:01

sends a message that in a possible

20:04

scenario of an allout

20:07

War

20:09

Russia

20:10

will be a little bit more determined in

20:15

showcasing its power and in exerting its

20:19

influence uh on the global uh stage and

20:23

from the looks of it it has already

20:25

decided which side it's going to partner

20:28

up with

US role

20:30

yeah that does seem to be the case and

20:33

it's interesting too I appreciate your

20:34

explanation there because whe when it

20:37

comes down to it you look at the current

20:40

situation that we're in and the role

20:43

that certainly the US has played getting

20:46

itself hold

20:47

on excuse me um that you see the role

20:52

that the US has played in the region and

20:56

how it has gotten involved in all of the

20:58

chaos and destruction that has resulted

21:01

from that and I wanted to go back to a

21:03

comment that you made earlier you know

21:05

looking at kind of the situation that

21:06

Israel is in right now this question of

21:09

whether Netanyahu wants a wider War

21:12

because on one hand it seems as though

21:15

he's trying to distract from the fact

21:17

that he claimed he would defeat Hamas in

21:20

Gaza clearly he has not done that has

21:22

not gotten anywhere close to that and

21:24

instead has just killed tens of

21:26

thousands of Palestinian

21:29

civilians and you look at the current

21:31

situation where now we're not only

21:34

waiting for what the retaliation from

21:36

Iran and Hezbollah and ansar La is going

21:39

to look like but we're also seeing these

21:42

reports that Israel is considering some

21:44

sort of a preemptive strike right if

21:46

they think that Iran is going to Target

21:48

them then they could strike first which

21:50

in this case would just be a strike but

21:53

what are the concerns there for I guess

21:56

how far Netanyahu is willing to go

21:59

especially as you have you know Iran and

22:01

Hezbollah saying look we do not want a

22:04

regional War we're do it seems like

22:07

they're doing everything in their power

22:09

to prevent that from happening but at

22:11

the same time they still have to

22:14

respond uh I'd like to clarify what I

22:17

said Iran doesn't want an allout war or

22:21

any kind of a strike that then would uh

22:24

remove the world's sympathy with the

22:26

Palestinians it doesn't want The

22:28

Narrative to shift and the oppressor

22:31

then would become the victim and the

22:33

victim become the oppressor Iran doesn't

22:35

want that but it doesn't mean that Iran

22:38

is not ready and some fractions of the

22:42

Iranian establishment and the Iranian

22:44

people wouldn't really beg for such war

22:47

in which they would be able to exert

22:49

their force and side with the oppressed

22:51

people of Palestine that that are being

22:54

indiscriminately bombed I mean it seems

22:57

that in the Israeli vocabulary in the

22:59

Israeli dictionary schools hospitals

23:02

churches mosques places of worship in

23:05

general un bases they all called Hamas

23:09

bases uh and the fact that Iranian

23:13

people are really frustrated with the

23:14

rest of the world not really putting out

23:17

there any any real initiative or action

23:23

that would prevent the occurrence

23:26

reoccurrence of such instances

23:28

is really something that again

23:31

frustrates the

23:33

Iranians uh and well in people people

23:36

inside the country are really ready uh

23:40

you know for any scenario right that's

23:43

that's something that the the the

23:47

population feels and this is more

23:49

certainly the thing that the Iranian

23:52

military apparatus feels uh previous

23:56

time in after the operation true promise

23:59

one the the head of the irgc Aerospace

24:02

Force General Amir Ali gave out an

24:05

interview and in which he said uh we uh

24:10

we he was explaining how many missiles

24:14

they have launch what were the specifics

24:16

of the uh operation in general and he

24:20

said my colleagues and the I are all

24:23

wishing for a for an opportunity to have

24:26

a chance to carry out the second

24:29

iteration of operation two promise so

24:32

this is not something that they weren't

24:34

ready for uh all these talk by Nan yahu

24:37

that they are ready in order to that

24:40

he's ready in order to have an allout

24:42

war is just uh a way of him using the

24:47

madman Theory but he's he's almost like

24:50

a child uh and he's he's failing at

24:53

doing so because then you read Benny

24:56

Gant and uh

24:59

I forgot the other the other military

25:02

General in Israel who came out and said

25:05

we wanted to respond to Iran but nanahu

25:09

didn't accept uh the fact that this

25:13

person uh tries to look tough but

25:17

actually is very scared and you know

25:21

he's he's doing everything you have I'm

25:23

sure that you and your audience have

25:24

read the news about how he has prepared

25:27

the protocol call for him and his wife

25:30

and his son to go to special Bonkers

25:33

which has angered the settlers in

25:36

occupied

25:37

Palestine uh about the fact that these

25:41

people namely his son and his wife uh

25:44

why they why should they get any special

25:47

treatment so these things in Iran

25:50

they're not really flying these type of

25:53

propaganda are not really flying by the

25:57

uh decision makers and by the analysts

25:59

and geopolitical

26:01

experts uh in

26:04

in putting that aside I think that uh

26:08

Iran understands that it has to reimpose

26:12

deterrence if you do not reestablish a

26:15

deterrence against an enemy that H that

26:19

says that Israel should appear like a

26:22

mad dog on the global stage and for

26:25

those who want to call me rush into

26:27

calling me an anti-semite this is

26:29

something that former Israeli uh you

26:33

know uh defense minister M Dian said uh

26:38

for a country that has the dahya

26:40

doctrine for those who don't know uh

26:42

this is a Doctrine which advocates for

26:44

targeting civilians and civilian

26:48

infrastructure and civilian Targets in

26:51

order to create a deterrence when you

26:55

are faced with such an enemy any show of

26:58

Force by you any lack of willingness to

27:02

show Force by you does not encourage

27:06

your enemy to behave rationally it

27:10

emboldens them in order to pursue what

27:12

they were pursuing before so in Iran

27:16

this is a very common understanding that

27:19

a

27:21

retaliation as contradictory as it might

27:24

sound to people is actually uh in uh

27:30

works fine and it it works in favor of

27:34

uh preventing a war in this scenario

27:37

because otherwise they will think that

27:40

they can continue carrying out these

27:43

strikes with impunity which is a very uh

27:47

dangerous uh false notion that if Israel

27:52

Israeli commanders believe that is the

27:54

case then that means that we are going

27:56

to see repetition of these atrocious

28:00

behaviors by uh by Israel yeah I know

28:04

that there is certainly a lot at stake

28:06

here all around and I really appreciate

28:08

you taking the time to join me today to

28:10

break down all of the latest here Assan

28:13

sephr NAD an iran-based journalist and

28:15

geopolitical analyst thank you so much

28:18

for your time and insight thanks for

28:20

inviting me if anything in this video

28:23

resonated with you be sure to like it

28:25

share it with your friends leave a

28:27

comment and as always don't forget to

28:28

subscribe and if you want to keep up

28:30

with all of my work make sure that

28:32

you're subscribed to my page on substack

28:34

that's Rachel bl. substack

28:37

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28:40

page on patreon that's patreon.com

28:43

Rachel blovin that's where you can sign

28:45

up as a monthly paid subscriber and join

28:47

the community there as always thank

28:49

you'all so much for all of your support

28:52

and I'll see you next time

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