Video Infoblog: Hezbollah’s Deterrence Against Israel 'A Turning Point' As Both Sides Trade Fire –Elijah J. Magnier
it is August 26 2024 and according to reports Israel and Hezbollah exchanged heavy fire between them some of the heaviest attacks since last October if you pay attention to the mainstream media here in the US they'll tell you what Netanyahu said that he claimed that Israel launched some sort of preemptive strikes that they were able to essentially stop Hezbollah in their track so that when Hezbollah did launch an attack which was part of its retali ation for the killing of a commander within the group by Israel late last month well Israel is claiming that that attack wasn't nearly as severe as it would have been but is that what actually happened how did Israel actually view hezbollah's response and was there some sort of deterrence that was established by Hezbollah with his attack and could this be a turning point in the current conflict we discussed all of that and more earlier with the special guest so let's take a listen to that conversation now joining me now to discuss is Veteran War correspondent Elijah man Elijah thanks so much for taking the time to join me thank you for having me I want to get your take on the latest here I know it's been a busy day as you had Israel carry out what appeared to be its largest bombing of Southern Lebanon since October on Sunday claiming that it was launching preemptive strikes then you had Hezbollah launch dozens of drones and more than 320 katucha Rockets into Israel saying it was the start of retaliation for Israel's killing of a Hezbollah Commander late last month now I know that you recently wrote an article on this in which you pointed out the fact that for the first time in modern history a non-state actor that being Hezbollah has successfully established deterrence over one of the most formidable armies in the world will you take us through kind of what you mean by that and what unfolded between here well yes it is uh a very significant event we've seen during the heah bombardment uh of Israel as a retaliation of the Israeli violation of the Rules of Engagement and international law by bombing the capital Beirut and killing not only hasbullah Commander but also several civilians uh in the residential area so uh we know that hisbah has been uh saying that he going to retaliate but uh it was retaliation until the result of the negotiation in dohaqatar between the Israelis the Americans the katar the Egyptians and Hamas said that was on aside unwilling to participate because they know the outcome but has delegated to the the katari and the Egyptians to speak on their behalf because they have agreed on the main point that President Biden uh has forwarded including the United Nations but then Israel changed its mind and for that because Netanyahu went to the capital uh of um Iran tan and assassinated is the um head of Hamas political Bureau and also bom beut hasah retaliate after the retaliation Hezbollah launched 320 rockets and dozens of drones as you rightly said the most significant part here is first this is the first time a non-state actor challenges and one of the strongest armies in the world and the strongest in the Middle East and this strong Army um informs hisbah through the Americans that if if that is your response then we are even which means accepting this deterrence but not only that who was carrying the letter and the message was the most strongest superpower in the world the Americans who also not only consider heah as a terrorist group but acknowledge his power and his negotiating testing if that would be a sufficient response that hisbah would be happy with I mean we are seeing something that is unheard of and something we have never observed that a non-state actor imposing on the superpower and that is allied with one of the strongest army in the midle in the world is deterence and saying I'm going to hit you I manag to hit you with very basic rockets that goes back to the identifying with their uh fine intelligence Services the secret location of an intelligent uh 88,200 that is responsible for recruiting agents in the Middle East and West Asia responsible for artificial intelligence open source intelligence Human Resources Etc and manag to create a diversion by flooding the Israeli most interception missile system to allow its drone to go and reach the Target and really sending it within the distance calculating the distance between the Lebanese borders and the targeted 8,200 that is more or less exactly the same with a few kilometers extra between the Lebanese borders and the suburb of Beirut where the Hezbollah commanders was uh assassinated this equation taking into consideration all these points and on top of that uh hitting Israel in a way that doesn't drive the uh Israeli to retaliate harshly and go to an allout War as Benyamin nany the Israeli Prime Minister once and uh take into consideration the presence of the US forces and NATO ready to interfere in the defense and attack in on the side of the Israelis that was a master hit yeah and I appreciate you explaining that because especially in the mainstream media here in the west it seems like the coverage is mainly centered around okay these two Tre these two sides traded fire and then it stops there now another thing that you have the mainstream media also really heading on is netanyahu's response he came out and vowed that there would be more what he referred to as surprising blows but I know when you were delving into this earlier you noted that while Netanyahu claimed that Israel had successfully launched a preemptive strike against Hezbollah allegedly preventing the launch of over 1,000 to 6,000 missiles aimed at Tel Aviv no secondary explosions were observed nor were there any confirmed has Esa casualties among the missile launch units so when it comes to what Israel is trying to do right now how are they trying to get out in front of the I guess you could say the pr battle there to kind of save face when it comes to what actually happened versus how it's being reported as having happened yes we um had first of all the Israeli military spokesperson saying Israeli uh air forces and preemptive attack and destroyed 1,000 missiles that hisbah was directing toward T Aviv and then we had the Prime Minister benam nety saying that they have destroy 6,000 missiles and then we had the Israeli um government spokesperson saying that there were 8,000 missiles now first nobody heard a secondary explosion of all these missiles if were they were ready to be launched or in the warehouses nobody in the area heard anything and it was not reported on satellite images or anything secondly the Israelis told us that 250,000 missiles destroying and the Israeli are claiming 1 to 6,000 8,000 even 10,000 that represent a very small small minute portion of what isra what hisbah has which means that hisbah was not deterred thirdly hisbah carried out the attack now and a half after the Israeli announced that they have carried out a preemptive attack according to their claim against hisbah which mean that hisbah carried out the attack regardless of the Israeli attack that obviously did not damage the hisbah and the most important point is preparing 320 Rockets doesn't come by pushing a button it requires a whole team launching drones dozens of drones every drone requires three person to be able to launch the Drone and prepare it this whole team was on the ground the Noah casualties hisbah reported no casualty among its ranks it was only after several hours when the um when the Rules of Engagement were reestablished that hisbah reported only two militants killed and we know hisbah reports every single day the number of casualties it is suffering from without hiding it unlike the Israelis therefore the whole story doesn't stand any ground and it indicates that Netanyahu wanted to show a heroic act saving Tel Aviv and he doesn't know where these Messi were going to be directed against which Target if his claim is Right therefore he just is speculating and inventing something that actually did not happen and nobody saw any trace of it and at least there were no results of what he calls a preemptive attack it indicat that benam wanted to climb down the tree and say well I've hit hisbah first then it's okay if they hit me back well the difference is we're talking about a non-state actor hitting what is called the Israeli economic capital the center of Finance the center of uh electronic advanced technology the center of a stock market and the place where the Israelis felt the most secure that was hit and for Hezbollah to identify such a Secret locations and to bomb on top of that 12 other military bases that is really showing that Israel despite all its allmight capacity and capability is not only recognizing hezbollah's strengths but also abiding by its rules and accepting to be hit wow that is just it's fascinating to me I think it's really interesting what's being said publicly versus what's actually happening on the ground exactly as you were pointing out there and I I know that when it comes to the question of where we go from here you've got the Wall Street Journal summing it up with a recent report that said after hezbollah's retaliation all eyes fixed on Iran what are you keeping an eye on when it comes to Iran and where their retaliation against Israel does stand because of course we have to remember that Israel assassinated Palestinian Diplomat and Hamas political Chief ismal hania earlier this month while he was in tyon so we still have Iran there waiting for some form of retaliation what are you keeping an eye on there well first of all it is important to highlight that um uh diverted the attention back to Gaza and what's happening in Gaza unlike what the uh newspaper is trying to say all eyes on irans on the contrary hasah is saying the case is closed we back to the same rules of engagement we continue supporting Gaza but now don't look at me secondary uh level of importance and the most important part is Gaza that's important because it has shifted the when the Americans and NATO are in the area and saying you don't need to be there and this is exactly what Iran did Iran said we're not in a hurry we will retaliate it's our right because uh the Israelis have violated the Iranian sovereignty but we're not going to do it now why because NATO is in the area the Americans are in the area they have committed themselves to defend Israel and Iran doesn't want its missiles or its head to be intercepted and destroyed by NATO and the Americans as it happened last April when Iran uh hit Israel what is important here is not the all eyes on Iran is Iran for the first time in April hit Israel and broke all the taboos of challenging and bombing Israel when Israel had always the upper hand amount assassination attacks on uh Iranian scientists or Iranian nuclear fac facilities or Iranian generals either in Syria or in Iran but this is the second time that the Israelis are going to be hit in one way or another and the Israelis are waiting for the hit along with the Americans and NATO it shows how the strongest power of the West is incapable to convince Iran that is very small in this equation of NATO and the US forces and Israeli military forces but yet Iran is challenging all this force and saying I am going to retaliate and it is my right but like hisbah Iran doesn't want to diver the attentions away from what's happening in Gaza and wants the world to continue focusing on the isra crimes against humanity war crimes and genocide against the Palestinian civilians that Benyamin Netanyahu the Israeli Prime Minister insist in proceeding with this is why all eyes are not really on Iran but all eyes should be focused on Gaza and Iran is going it cannot retaliate without showing what he's doing as hisbah the movement of troops of teams of units hundreds of people to launch missiles therefore this movement can be seen by the satellite it is not going to be a surprise even if the Iranians will try to hide it perhaps Iran will hit in a different way in an intelligence way and hit a Target inside Israel that is a possibility without doing a lot of creating a lot of noise or perhaps it will use its ballistic missiles we don't know but in one way on another the Americans and NATO are in the area not to start attacking Iran because Iran has the capability to half of the world economy by closing the straight of hos is allies closing the Red Sea the Su Canal the Mediterranean the Arab Sea and the Indian Ocean the the world will starve will be in a a very dire situation the oil will reach $200 a barrel and everybody is going to suffer from this is why by removing itself from the hasah reduced the tension reduced the um motive and reason of the presence of additional us and NATO forces in the deescalate all this um high tension that exist and still existing today but on a lower level after h headit and the proof that Iran and its allies are not creating a hit where their intention is to destroy Israel as Israel always claim and seek defense but it show Israel cannot defend itself is fighting with the US not only weapons but also uh Army and its allies as forces present in the Middle East to help Israel to fight then why Israel is starting all these wars only because of the American presence the answer is yes without the Americans Israel cannot do anything against the Palestinian resistance so it is incapable of bringing back all the Israeli to the borders with Lebanon after almost a year of fighting it is incapable to deter Hezbollah on the contrary it is submitting to hasah Rules by saying okay we had enough if you are happy we stop this is is not a language of a uh a from a position of strength on the contrary it's a position of weakness and of submission to The Rules of Engagement of a non-state actor yeah and I think that that's good to keep in mind you know when it comes to the current situation in Gaza we've seen this back and forth on ceasefire talks I mean Netanyahu has made it very clear that he doesn't want an agreement seems like from every additional thing that he's put forth you have Hamas on their end going hey we do want an agreement but we need a requirement of an end to this war right an end to the Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip how do you view where ceasefire talks stand especially as we continue to be in a situation where Israel has not defeated Hamas Netanyahu is under this pressure to make it look like he's accomplishing something and all of these targeted assassinations and attacks that Israel has been carrying out have just served to further increase tensions in the region with Israel seeming like that's exactly what they want to do on their end Benjamin Netanyahu according to the Israelis has hijacked Israel in the service of his personal objective to remain in power the moment Benyamin Netanyahu asked his army to stop the War he's going to go home not only the Army will go home because he will be accused of the failure on the 7th of October the death of all the prisoners and the captives in the hand of Hamas for refusing to negotiate their release and also the economic destruction that Israel is suffering from after more than 11 month of this war therefore it is in his advantage to continue fighting and for that he's always going to create more wars in the Middle East this is not the end of it because he wants to remain 2026 and the war in Gaza is over what he's doing are attacks bombardments of civilians uh destruction of Ana schools where there are internally displaced uh Palestinians refugees he's bombarding the tents killing every single day between 30 to 100 Palestinian to put pressure on Hamas during the negotiations it is not working because has he has been doing that for the last four months killing only civilian for in favor of the negotiations thinking that this can help him to achieve what he wants he doesn't want to pull out of Gaza the Americans are asking him to leave he doesn't want to leave and he wants to remain the Army the Israeli Army chief of staff heiv saying we can go back to Gaza any time let us stop we have reached the maximum what we can reach the defense minister yuav Galan is saying who is part of the liud party headed by his boss the prime minister benami netan is saying we have finished the job in Rafa it's finished let us stop the war but benam Netanyahu cannot stop the war because he is the hostage of the Nationalist Ultra Orthodox party ities and they are the one who are protecting him to remain in power and keep the Coalition of the government because if he doesn't if he stops the war and he uh uh abide by the recommendations of the security forces and his defense minister and the Americans then he will lose he will personally on the personal level and this is why he is still fighting and most probably he will go go for another assassination in Lebanon or in Iran to again bring the whole area and the whole region into another level of high tension where forcing the other party to attack him so he can create a wider War so far he has failed because all the other parties are very much aware of his plan and what he's trying to do but there is a limit of what he can uh continue provoke them and yet he understands that no matter how far he provokes them they not going to uh be dragged wherever he want them and this is why he will continue doing sabotaging assassinating um specific uh commanders or people in different places where he can provoke uh more war because this is the only reason that can keep him life the negotiations are going nowhere Netanyahu is introducing every time new uh conditions that are unacceptable he wants to remain on the borders with Egypt and be in control of the Rafa and the Philadelphia Corridor he wants to remain between the North and the South in the narim corridor he wants to control the identity of every single Palestinian returning to his home from the south where they are Refugee to the the north he wants to uh control the quantity of reconstruction material that is coming into Gaza and he doesn't want to stop the war with the um uh permission and the authority to regain the war any time and he wants all the prisoners and the captives back in Phase One when there is no ceasefire these are impossible conditions for anyone to meet so it means that that I don't want to deal I don't want the negotiations to succeed and I want to continue keeping quo yeah certainly a lot of stay care all around and it'll be interesting to see just how far Israel pushes things as we've seen clearly the other parties at play when it comes to Iran and Hezbollah exactly as you were saying not only do they not want a wider War but they want the focus to be on the Palestinian people and on their ongoing suffering at the hands of Israel all enabled by the us at the end of the day I really appreciate you taking the time to join me today to break down all of the latest here Veteran War correspondent Elijah man thank you so much for your time and insight it's great to be with you Rachel if anything in this video resonated with you be sure to like it share it with your friends leave a comment and as always don't forget to subscribe and if you want to keep up with all of my work make sure that you're subscribed to my page on substack that's Rachel B.S docomo my work you can also check out my page on patreon that's patreon.com Rachel blevens that's where you can sign up as a monthly paid subscriber and join the community there as always thank you all so much for all of your support and
