Video Infoblog: Klaus Mühlhahn On China's Rise In A Historical Perspective
Many commentators claim that China's ongoing global rise reflects a restoration of its earlier international prominence, while others highlight that China's emergence reflects distinctive characteristics of the country's current political leadership. In his new book, Making China Modern, Klaus Mühlhahn of the Free University of Berlin provides a panoramic survey of China's rise and resilience through war and rebellion, disease and famine. At this event Professor Mühlhahn will focus on the lessons from history that provide insight into China's evolving international position and how the United States and others should respond.
About the Book
A panoramic survey of China’s rise and resilience through war and rebellion, disease and famine, that rewrites China’s history for a new generation.
It is tempting to attribute China’s recent ascendance to changes in political leadership and economic policy. Making China Modern teaches otherwise. Moving beyond the standard framework of Cold War competition and national resurgence, Klaus Mühlhahn situates twenty-first-century China in the nation’s long history of creative adaptation.
In the mid-eighteenth century, when the Qing Empire reached the height of its power, China dominated a third of the world’s population and managed its largest economy. But as the Opium Wars threatened the nation’s sovereignty from without and the Taiping Rebellion ripped apart its social fabric from within, China found itself verging on free fall. A network of family relations, economic interdependence, institutional innovation, and structures of governance allowed citizens to regain their footing in a convulsing world. In China’s drive to reclaim regional centrality, its leaders looked outward as well as inward, at industrial developments and international markets offering new ways to thrive.
This dynamic legacy of overcoming adversity and weakness is apparent today in China’s triumphs―but also in its most worrisome trends. Telling a story of crisis and recovery, Making China Modern explores the versatility and resourcefulness that matters most to China’s survival, and to its future possibilities.
About the Speaker
Klaus Mühlhahn is Professor of Chinese History and Culture and Vice President at the Freie Universität Berlin. His book "Criminal Justice in China: A History" won the John K. Fairbank Prize in East Asian History from the American Historical Association. Mühlhahn has published widely on modern Chinese history in English, German, and Chinese and is a frequent commentator on China for the German media.
Transcript
Why I wrote the book
0:05
I would like to start by telling you why I actually wrote the book what was my
0:13
really what was my approach why did I think you know it took me about ten
0:18
years it was really a lot of work why would I think that something like this is needed and it I can say very briefly
0:26
it came out of a frustration with the
0:31
let's say was the image of Chinese history in the histories that we have
0:36
and I should say one thing we have of course amazing historians and there's a
0:42
lot of historical work that's being produced but what I'm not talking about is we can call it macro history so these
0:48
are histories that try to give an overview that synthesize sort of the very specialized research that's being
0:54
done that portray Chinese history to a broader audience an audience of students or other interested readers so this I
1:01
would say it's almost a different genre this general large-scale history that
1:07
gives an overview and the existing books that we have they were mostly written
1:12
thirty years ago and thirty years ago as we all know China looked very different
1:19
right China was not at all I mean the differences are so immense I remember
1:25
that because roughly about that time when these histories were written this were at the time when I first visited China around in 1985 1986 and when I
1:35
first went to China Beijing China in 1985 you wouldn't believe it there was not a single high-rise building Beijing
1:41
was so remarkable this was all one floor one floor houses and now today's China
1:49
has changed considerably and I think that also gives us a sort of a prompt us
1:56
to rethink Chinese history when earlier history is written 30 or 40 years ago
2:02
what they tried to explain was why China was not like not as successful as the
2:09
Western world was not as developed as the West so they were more interested in
2:15
explaining China's backwardness necessarily that made a lot of sense in the mid-1980s there was at least the
2:21
China they had to confront with so they were interested in explaining why China was lagging behind but if we now look at
2:29
China I think we don't have to explain Chinese failures what's what's of interest now is no longer I think sort
2:37
of understanding why China is lagging behind but in fact why China has achieved what it did so that was sort of
2:45
I thought the China that is portrayed in these books is not a China that we can see that my students can see that the
2:51
readers can see and we're missing a large part of that story if we try to
2:56
understand the deficits if you will the failures the mistakes if that is in the
3:02
center in the book of course I am I have full II understand that a history and that applies to all the history of
3:10
my own country Germany has it always both right I mean there is there are things that a nation can be proud of and
3:17
there are things that are problematic or in the history that shouldn't have happened and so we always have to have a nuanced
3:24
view of history but I just thought we need a history that explains China's
3:29
development that we have seen in the last thirty years so that is really the starting point so my history I accept
3:37
the fact that China is a major country in the world the China is now on more or
3:44
less on equal and that is the starting point for my history going back and I
3:49
was looking into this history to understand what are the historical sort of strengths the historical advantages
3:58
that China could bring to the table that would allow us to better understand how
4:07
China developed so that was one of the big I won a big starting point for me
4:15
and the second point was also I wanted I thought what we need a book is that
What we need a book
4:22
really explains that doesn't describe my book of course history is always telling
4:28
you know a series of events of data of names but I wanted to go one
4:39
step further and sort of re I mean I think we discover if you're so well
4:45
analytical thinking you know in the in in recent years I think in the last two three decades so the social scientists
4:53
have become very analytical but history the discipline of history is turned more
5:00
to description or documentation you know telling stories since about is a lot of stories but I wanted but earlier
5:08
generations by the way in the 19th century historians have not written that way so I wanted to go back rather to his
5:14
earlier traditions of history writing that emphasized explanation that
5:20
identify causes patterns that allow us to understand why something has happened
5:26
not dead it happened or when it happened but also why it happened and what sort of sources
5:31
what sort of reasons we can discover so
5:37
meaning putting China today's China front and center for our exploration of
5:43
history emphasizing explanation that is the basic approach that I tried to apply
5:50
in the book it also meant however you can only explain and identify causes and consequences if you are as a story and
5:57
willing to go actually beyond the discipline of history there are other
6:02
disciplines that are sometimes very necessary to understand causes or identify causes for historical
6:08
developments for instance demography a demography is a very big very big issue
6:14
and topic in China's development in the last three and fifty years so I looked
6:20
into what demographers had to say the kind of information they gave us
6:25
also another gift layer I can give you another example which is very important I think is the entire environment
6:32
environmental history environmental historians geography of course also
6:38
plays a big role so I did I spend a lot of time to read through their work especially in
6:45
the 19th century in the 20th century and what they have to tell us about how the physical environment was shaped by
6:52
Chinese policies and what sort of consequences that had for the
6:58
development of China's history so it meant going beyond the let's say you
7:04
know the the comfortable zone of a historian and trying to engage with different fields of knowledge that was
7:11
also very that's that was also one of my actually goals or what I wanted to do I
Mentalities and values
7:18
should add one more thing and that may sound in a beginning a little abstract but in fact it isn't is it something
7:28
that we are actually all very familiar with in the book I use I because I want
7:36
to explain things and I want to explain developments historical developments I
7:42
thought I need a certain approach that allies allows me to organize my
7:47
materials earlier historians and earlier books were for instance often interested in culture right I mean I think you're
7:54
all familiar with these arguments that we believe that the history or a regions
8:00
or countries history is deeply shaped by it by mentalities or by cultural traditions by values I wasn't interested
8:08
in writing a book that sees values as a driver there's number of reasons because
8:15
I think it's kind of misleading it's very hard to identify these values but the biggest problem for an historian is
8:20
we never know how a person how a leader how people really believed in these
8:26
values we all know you know there's that there are competing values and it's very hard to identify commitment to certain
8:32
values historically I mean in the present I can go and ask you you know what you believe in but I cannot ask
8:37
somebody a hundred years ago so I think that's very it's a shaky ground to argue
8:42
on that level of mentalities and values it's abstract it's hard to prove there's no empirical work really that tells us
8:49
this kind of thing so I try to avoid it but I think one can really work with
8:55
what I call institutions so where other historians were interested in the role of cultural traditions mentalities I am
9:02
interested in what does how do institutions shape the development of a society over history institutions as
9:10
defined by social scientists are written or unwritten rules rules that allow people to collaborate or work together
9:18
we all need to work together if we do not work together there's very little a society a company even a city a
9:25
neighborhood a village can achieve division of labor is absolutely fundamental not only for modernity but
9:32
even for centuries you know for from the very beginning of the development of human civilization it's based on
9:38
collaboration you know it's based on the division of labor that there are some roles some tasks there's somebody taken
9:46
taken over by somebody and he does it because he know he knows he can get a
9:51
certain outcome so institutions make it possible for people to work together because they can trust that if I do this
9:59
job I will for instance get a certain reward there is a certain outcome there
10:05
are expectations these institutions give us expectations we say ok yeah I get I
10:10
get salary I get recognition for the kind of work so it's this must be
10:15
regulated by something there must be some sort of you know rules that gives that determines that division of labor
10:22
makes it possible and that is called institutions so institutions are not organizations a business is based on an
10:31
institution in itself it's an organization so businesses for instance have their own rules right how this
10:38
department does planning this department you know organizes supply you know we we
10:44
allocate money for certain things so there's these rules that govern let's
10:50
say a business or a government administration that's called an institution
10:56
I look at these institutions because I believe good institutions allow people
11:02
to work together smoothly good institutions are fair they distribute
11:09
the profits and the labor and the responsibilities so that everybody is
11:14
satisfied with it good institutions are inclusive meaning you know if you're
11:20
interested if you can contribute there's no discrimination for instance or based
11:26
on gender or based on race these are I would say strong institutions they work
11:32
well because people can work together smoothly now there are also institutions that do not work well institutions that
11:40
are not so you know that and that we can observe in history and have been used
11:46
for a long time but are seen as problematic because we for instance are
11:52
institutions that are coercive we are not free to decide whether or not you want to contribute you're forced for
11:58
instance slavery slavery is a set of rules behind slavery is a set of rules that forces people that compels people
12:05
to do work without unclear benefits and then we know of course that slavery was
12:13
while it was profitable for some in who had you know so to speak the command who
12:21
could command these the slaves to work they had all the benefits but they were as an institution it was weak
12:28
institution because it was resisted by those who were forced to work for the
12:33
for the for the owner so coercive institutions its tractive
12:39
institutions are less efficient because they have to deal with resistance and
12:44
and so on and so forth so why am I using institutions because I think it allows me a perspective to that is you know to
12:52
look at Chinese development arguing ok China brought certain strengths its own
12:57
institutions its unique institutions to the table and based on that unique
13:03
institutions and their traditions that come from it orders are been connect to it China was able in fact in a 20th
13:10
century to go through the development it did it went through so in my perspective
13:16
China's it's China's own institutions that drive historical development not so
13:22
much ideas not so much ideology not so
13:29
much political power struggles or personalities or the big leaders so when
13:34
I look at you know certain things I'm not so much interested in the in the leaders that everybody talks about broad
13:40
rather in how things are organized on the ground in a society and I think that offers us a good perspective
13:47
understanding both the strengths and the weaknesses so the basic point here is to
13:52
say China's development is a domestic story it's not it's China's own unique
13:58
institutions and strengths that drive the development not act not impact from the outside the Chinese development is
14:06
made or broken in China and so that's my my one of my makes basic points that I
14:14
tried to wake in the book so it that allows us to understand our continuities it points to a country with unique
14:21
institutional strength and legacies and understands the making of modern China
14:29
as a process that's not driven by outside influence or intervention but rather by its own or domestic
14:37
achievements and interventions so overall I think that is very clear there's a very different approach and
14:44
perspective on Chinese history that other books that distinguish it from
14:49
other existing books on China so overall my history starts in the late Qing
14:56
period and the late Qing period is often in the earlier books and histories
15:02
portrayed as something that is a stagnant Empire you know I'm from
15:08
Germany and we have a very German a very famous philosopher I'm sure you have heard the name Friedrich Hegel
15:13
and Friedrich Hegel has written a immensely influential text about China
15:19
that actually had impact beyond Germany and he said you know China he called China is a country without
15:25
history because he said you know it's not developing it's stagnant you know they're out there there's they they
15:32
don't have science they are not interested in progress it's just a stagnant society a country without
15:40
history and that has actually then later also influenced a lot of social
15:46
scientists Max Weber for instance and then you find this in many history books that Chinese Confucian society sort of
15:53
wasn't a very dynamic society it was mostly interested in maintaining order in stability not in development I
16:01
think that's totally wrong that I I'm actually speechless because Chinese
16:07
history is full of dynamics it's full of changes it's full of expansion and progress and development and it's a
16:16
complete misreading and so I decide I tell or portray the chain as a as a
16:24
country as an empire that is enormously dynamic that is very creative
16:29
that's very innovative that expands its territory that develops further develops
16:34
its institutions that is so successful that the population grows and continues
16:40
to grow that is at the center of a global trade network it's it reaching
16:45
China has a huge trade surplus with Europe it is already at that time the
16:52
Qing China you know sells much more to Europe than Europeans can purchase from
16:59
China and what they selling I don't know if we have yet and what they are selling is above all porcelain in Europe you
17:07
can't produce porcelain before 1780 china produces porcelain it's very
17:13
useful porcelain is not for decoration it's very useful because you can porcelain holds very hot liquids and
17:20
food and without you know that you you are not burned now you can actually
17:27
touch it because it cool The Outsiders keeps coolant the temperature difference between hot
17:33
liquid and the surface is pretty high that's a unique quality of porcelain you don't have it with metal as you all know
17:39
if metal you know something or Irina's this is hot you can't touch it but you can touch has enormous spider bite
17:46
consequences for the kitchen you know for preparing food and so on also in Europe it's a real revolution it's a
17:52
revolution this is impossible this has made possible by Chinese technology it's
17:57
not Western or European theater and Chinese technology so it's sold in huge quantities and it's produced for for for
18:05
Western Europe and this is an example here it's also produced for Arabic countries that is specially made to be
18:13
sold in the Middle East China also sold porcelain to India South Asia it also
18:20
sold porcelain to Europe as well as to Eastern Europe and it made different
18:28
designs and different decors for this region so the producers in China
18:33
produced patterns or decor to cater to the taste of local customers in Europe
18:39
that was was already the case around 70 90 300 years ago amazing so this was
18:46
said to us that the China was at the center of a global trade network it's a commercialized it's very
18:54
successful country why is that successful because it has unique sophisticated institutions it has highly
19:01
efficient markets it because these markets you know in these markets they understand to cater to the tastes of
19:07
different people different you know be therefore from different religious backgrounds not matter yeah
19:13
so it's these are fantastic highly efficient booming markets but also you have an education system that's amazing
19:21
you have a bureaucracy that is very effective that has you know many
19:27
different layers and so on for the tasks that it's supposed to do it's very effective and you have a clear
19:33
commitment to infrastructure you have an amazing system of granaries of disaster prevention and emergency you know in
19:42
strata she's dealing with emergency so it's highly sophisticated successful society based on unique set of institutions but
The Decline
19:50
in this 19th century all this goes away
19:55
in China sort of goes into a steep steep
20:01
decline so you see this is an amazing story it's a fantastic narrative here we
20:07
have a country that is so successful for so long and then within less than a
20:13
hundred years it is it turns from a major center in the world to actually a
20:20
leg art or you can say you know what's then later called the sick man of the
20:27
world it becomes poor destitute underdeveloped lagging behind and that
20:33
only in a very short period of time so I make a side remark every of as
20:38
historians we often of course write about you know growing becoming
20:44
improving rising but we are less interested actually in the other process
20:51
that's the decline the fall but in human history both this has occurred very
20:56
often no Society as we know has managed to be forever developing improving
21:02
growing or rising in fact after a while it always comes to an end and I think we
21:09
need to understand better what actually pushes a society into crisis to the
21:14
brink and we have now the illusion that in modernity you know or post modernity we have kind of escaped this this fad
21:21
fatal cycle of growing and losing or growing and going down but I don't I I
21:27
have my doubts so that's why I'm so interested in this story and to make that short earlier historians have often
21:33
blamed again Confucianism stagnant mentalities wrong ideas China didn't
21:40
understand the Western challenge which resists that the Western impact or was
21:45
only dependent on Western impact because itself was rather helpless and therefore became humiliated in film
21:52
but in my story it's very different I try to show that there are very specific historical reasons and the first and
21:59
most important reason for me is economic crisis and that has something to do that
22:05
people in Germany commit a severe
22:11
copyright infringement on China they steal technology from China above all
22:18
they steal porcelain technology porcelain is such a lucrative Girt of
22:23
course Europeans have been thinking damn I mean these Chinese they make all this money through global trade you know if
22:29
we were produced porcelain we could become rich and so they study how to
22:35
porcelain and China has produced they want to know I mean what's what's India how do you do it and they actually ask
22:42
Arab traders and they steal the technology from China and we produce
22:48
produce and imitate porcelain in Germany Saxon in my son and after a while they
22:56
produce it of similar quality and that's the end of the porcelain trade so China which has probably sold millions of
23:03
pieces per year the estimate is something like over a hundred to Europe alone 100 million in a couple of decades
23:11
in a 18th century all of a sudden this market is gone silver dentist other factors Latin
23:19
America comes under Western control as you know colonialism Latin America was very important for silver production
23:25
silver production goes down that creates currency problems we could call it a
23:31
currency crisis financial institutions in China collapse there are earlier banks because they were very
23:37
sophisticated called a collapse there's a huge there's a growing amount of depth cannot be repaid so obviously we all
23:45
know economic crisis can have severe effect on a society and we we know that
23:50
from 2008 and and even earlier if it's a thing I'm from Germany if you think
23:56
about the big recession in 1930s or 20s in Europe that was absolutely traumatizing to people but in addition
24:02
we also have ecological problems I have to be brief here because I promised I speak only about 35 minutes
24:08
ecological problems were both global and homemade in China globally because climate pattern changed the entire
24:15
northern hemisphere has a change in precipitation there are less rainfall and that becomes the original or a
24:23
drought in China and that's in addition to that there are homemade problems that
24:29
have to do with the deforestation in China that has been going on by hundreds of years by we can say by 1800
24:36
practically all the forests were gone there's no forcing earlier you know China had about a thousand years ago was
24:43
covered by forests but no as you can see if you all I think traveled to China is not no forest left
24:50
it's all gone and that had enormous consequences erosion and so on and so
24:55
forth so all of this created political instability unrests and rebellions that
25:02
further put society in turmoil but then I think the main story for me as you can
25:08
of course guess is institutions because earlier you know let's say a society
25:14
faces economic downturn faces social
25:20
unrest social deserve people start to protest take to the streets demonstrate I mean that's what these rebels
25:26
basically did faces imperialism I briefly didn't mention it but imprison
25:33
so that means foreign threat for a military threat it still can respond it
25:40
doesn't mean that you have to be defeated by these challenges but you need institutions to do the right thing
25:46
you need policies to address the problems you need to make changes you
25:53
need to say okay well I mean so far we had probably you know not invested we
26:00
had there is foreign technology around for instance so you can say ok we have to see that we get the for ontology this
26:07
technology to China railways other machines and so on but it
26:14
didn't happen China didn't do it or delayed it when it did it was as I
26:20
read write in a book too little too late why didn't it do it because basically
26:26
the institutions were captured by special interests that means those who were in power had only one concern that
26:33
they wanted to stay in power and whatever threatened their hold on power or their hold on financial resources
26:39
these things were rejected FB ideas were all there there were ideas in the 19th
26:46
century by thinkers to reform the examination system to create new schools to let Chinese people learn foreign
26:53
languages to build Arsenal's to train
26:58
engineers to train lawyers but the governing dynasty didn't want it because
27:04
they said ok that could that could threaten us and therefore declined so in
27:10
the end for me it's an institutional failure I call it capture of special interest we see it quite often and I emphasize it
27:18
today because every source any society is in danger that its institutions are captured by special interests that then
27:24
keep make it impossible for necessary reforms to go so this is the last slide
The 20th Century
27:31
I'm going to make it ok and so what we
27:40
now see at the I have to make that short here what we now see in the 20th century
27:46
is the efforts to address the problems that I just told you about restarting of
27:53
the 19th century's institutional decay institutional failure and to make to
28:00
sort of try that China can enter the modern global landscape of progress and
28:08
science and development so I read the entire 20th century as a rocky painful
28:17
sort of effort to and experiment to undo
28:23
the 19th century Christ and I think if we look at the first
28:30
point political ambitions I think it's a very I think there's numerous examples
28:36
among from political leaders across the entire spectrum from the far right to
28:44
the far left that all more or less expressed the same political ambition
28:49
that is to say to recover or restore despair Lia greatness of China it's
28:56
regardless of its Sonia 10 the father of the Chinese nation or its Chiang kai-shek this military sectionalism oh
29:03
he had really the same look at his book China's destiny it's very obvious you know what for him China's destiny is is
29:10
exactly that martyrdom has shares the same vision after 1949 it's also about
29:17
making China again independent strong and wealthy a strong state a wealthy
29:23
country and the similar vision we have endings helping so the meta-narrative is
29:29
clear and consistent the differences is how to get there yeah and there are
29:35
there there are fundamental disagreements between peace between all
29:41
these people are just healthy or about there are fundamental agreements of how to do this but the political ambition is
29:48
sort of a constant driving force of the 20th century so all these governments
29:53
sort of do work on this program of bringing China back recovering it from
30:02
this brink of disaster of the 19th century but they differ profoundly in their institutional in in how they want
30:10
to change or reform the institutions so we have throughout the 20th century a huge a number of experiments and tests
30:18
reforms and revolutions destructions and modifications to sort of find an
30:24
adequate solution so for me this is the basic story I tell the story after 20th
30:32
century as a story of very different institutional sort of you know changing the rules of how society works
30:39
and in order to get to that one goal so that is political ambition so sustained
30:47
institutional innovation is the result of it there's a constant experiment
30:52
China experiments with so many things in the 20th century it experiments for instance with military dictatorships
30:59
it's the best political institution to solve their problem that's warlord China that's a little bit of junk I check
31:05
China's interested in Chinese fascism in the ninth in in fascism in the 30s maybe
31:11
fascism the mobilisation of society the use of paramilitary forces of extreme
31:19
national maybe deaths a solution so to order you know to to do this then it
31:24
experiments with socialism it experiments with various forms of
31:30
socialist we have to say Maoism as well as Stalinism all these changes and that
31:36
now we come to one of the unique characteristics of China all these changes left their mark in China today
31:44
we can see basically the historical the
31:50
historical we start of all these experiments in one one form or another there are still institutions around from
31:57
the warming gang era in fact you know so the Guam and an era for instance let me
32:02
give you an example was big in building a national centralized government is
32:08
very important for Chiang kai-shek now to have this to do to maintain that centralized government for instance it
32:14
did classify asthma thirties for the first time into five ethnicities that
32:19
exists in China declaring them as minorities you know and this is a very strong you know institutions are sets of
32:26
rules that's a very strong rule set very clearly this their nationalism is something the nation-state is clearly an
32:33
institution of Republican origins Mouse era left a lot of religion institutions
32:39
that are still around in China state-owned enterprises planning agencies the done way what of powerful
32:47
institution has invented in Mao's China grassroot organizations of various sorts neighborhood committees
32:53
that's still around and then there's of course these institutional reforms that
32:58
follow after 78 that sort of you know introduced from the global roam element
33:05
into the Chinese settings which allow now to have some multi national really
33:11
corporations you know Chinese corporations to exist we'd have their own rule setting so China is a very hyper place where you find all these
33:18
things next to each other creates attention and I believe that tension that it has explained some of the
33:24
instabilities the China brings to the table then I should also say two more
33:30
points we have also important historical legacies that explain China's
33:35
development in the last decades so as you can tell already I don't believe
33:42
that China's rise or China's successful development in the last 40 years is only
33:48
a matter of the last 40 years I do believe it has a much longer history behind it I believe China's development is the
33:55
result of these 100 years of experiments in reforms and revolutions it's only in
34:01
the last four decades that we paid attention but before that was already ongoing and it's a partly based on
34:07
important historical legacies my favorite example is the examination system the cow cow you know that you
34:14
have been asked about who took the cow cow the cow cow is an institution of
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course it went through changes and reforms but basically there's very this idea that you use anonymous testing
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standardized testing rigorous standardized testing to select talent
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that is a basic idea a basic institution that has that we can see in the entire
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20th century I would say you know the periods that there was no doubt our examination system is actually very very
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small it was abolished in 1904 but it came already back in 1916 and then only
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to be reinstated later again and even in the mouse period it was only for during the Cultural Revolution that there were
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no examinations other than that that's a very significant part I think it's a major explanation for China's
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development others Legacy's it's me have talked about this it's sinus highly efficient markets it's
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traditions of business of working on these markets household farming family
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businesses and so on so we also find in the economic sector a number of
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institutions that I think a half historical roots are revived after 78
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and it's this revival that explains the success so in the book I also write I
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don't believe that the China's development is the result of a grand plan from the top after 78 I don't think
Chinas Development
35:45
you know of course the government in China would like to stool so to see it that way and it's the wisdom of the
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leader but I think basically for me a consequence is to say China's
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development is driven from the bottom not so much from the top there in the
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beginning and I give you the details in the book in the beginning 78 Ford and Xiao Peng there is no there's no
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blueprint now there's no blueprint in a Bey it's it's opportunistic policies it's testing it's looking but it's
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mainly the peasants the people that work in a country said that to revive these markets that immediately go back to
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family if I mean are very successful they make it possible yes deaths when it when it will and then after it says the
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intrapreneurial innovation from very many people that makes that possible it's not top-down and then my final
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point is to say skillful you know put exploitation of unique global
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opportunities China has China's development is critically dependent on
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the world always has been always has been it's a country with open borders
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you know very little protection it's open it's always been open this is very
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clearly to be seen for instance China was more than half of its history it was ruled by non Chinese people it was so
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open you know that there's no parallel I think it was also dependent on resources
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it needed you see already in late Qing period China is talked about this China's economic
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development depended on the world market selling porcelain to Europe so that is
Chinas Weakness
37:29
that makes it necessary for China to use these global opportunities and this is my this is also a very important point
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this China's development depended that it made use of these opportunities that
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opened up 78 was really I think 70 aided
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used a unique configuration in the world the end of the 70s you know the end
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today that the Cold War that was of course still ongoing but there was movement on all sides there were you
38:02
know movements in Eastern Europe it is a period at the end of the 70s that is already a global crisis think about the
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globe Club of Rome think about the it fears about that you know maybe there is
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not there's an energy problem it's at the end of the cycle in Europe of a
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growth and development cycle in Europe the economies are maturing and then here's China and China opens up just at
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the right moment when a lot of because salaries have been risen a lot of companies are willing to move and it's
38:33
also now possible because of technological advancement so they use that time i my thesis is earlier or
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later China's development would have not been able to be as successful so the
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timing is of the essence just as I'm arguing that in late Qing China it was too little too late
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you know it could have in this in 78 it was just the right time it was just
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about the right time so that also means China's while China's story is written domestically it nonetheless is isn't
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always has been a country that is sort of a dependent on the world so now we
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have talked about all these strengths but China has one fundamental weakness it has never found a stable political
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institution to replace the Empire the Empire and the Emperor the Chantry the
39:26
bureaucracy maintained stability you know relative amazing stability
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continuity over hundreds of years and 20th century is a period of constant
39:38
received change if you will there's a constant back and forth it's not only you it's it's amazing how these things
39:45
from mouse you know revolutionary utopia to done Co pains market you know
39:52
socialism is Chinese there is the introducing market economy into socialism China has not found a stable
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political institution because I think it has this constitutional dilemma meaning
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it doesn't know exactly what its relationship is to the people who is in
40:12
charge who who has to who can say what you know who has who can participate in
40:19
what sort of discussion or in what sort of decision so for me these are brittle
40:25
political institutions up until today China cannot know legitimacy legitimacy
40:31
is of course a complicated word but I understand there is consensus some sort
40:36
of popular support popular acceptance I think it can never be sure popular acceptance has always been a in
40:43
question throughout the entire 20th century and therefore my conclusion at the end of the book is rather skeptical
40:49
there's been a lot of achievements but China can be always has been at once
40:54
powerful but also powerfully insecure thank you very much for listening