Video Infoblog: Israel Would Be Crazy to Launch An All-Out War On Lebanon. Here’s Why, w/ Elijah Magnier
Transcript
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what Israel is afraid of is not to cross the borders um with Lebanon that is
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terrifying for the Israelis it went about we show even further weakness and
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we increase the appetite of Hezbollah crossing the borders what about the
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other as of the resistance saying well perhaps it's a time to direct a strong
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hit against the Israelis and their allies in region what's going to happen
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to the American bases in Iraq are they going to be soft on them is the Iraqi
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resistance going to be soft I don't think so what's going to happen to the presence of the American
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occupying the northeast of Syria is that going to get away with it depending on the intensity of the battle in Lebanon
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in case of War hello everyone I'm R cik and this is dispatches after 8 months of
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live stream genocide and Gaza Israel has still yet to achieve its military objectives it hasn't destroyed Hamas it
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hasn't released all its hostages aside from a handful that it returned through a horrific Massacre of hundreds of
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Palestinians and its leadership looks increasingly irrational and desperate as
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it seeks to escalate on all fronts eyeing Lebanon next but if the Israelis
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can't defeat the cassam brigades who are operating under the harshest conditions from inside a besieged death
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Camp how do they think they can even begin to properly face the much larger and far more powerful hisbah without
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severe consequences us officials have tried to diplomatically avert an allout war on
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Lebanon because even they recognize Israel can't win and it would potentially draw in Iran and the us but
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rationality isn't Israel's strong suit its sponsors have allowed it to go as far as it wants with zero red lines
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meaning Israeli illusions of grandeur and Messianic genocidal Ambitions for
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territorial expansion rule the day so what would a big war between Israel and
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Hezbollah look like in the Levant and across the region what are the latest military
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developments from Gaza to Lebanon to discuss this and more I'm joined by
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Veteran War correspondent and analyst Elijah magneir but before we jump into
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it this is just part of this episode the full interview was available to breakthrough news members only you can
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become a member at patreon.com breakthrough news and as always be sure to hit the Subscribe
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button and the Bell so you get a notification whenever we post new content and if you appreciate this show
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you can always donate Below on YouTube Elijah welcome back to the show thank
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you for having me well it's great to have you back on and the last time I had you on was sometime in the beginning of
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the year it was either January or February uh we talked about military developments across the various fronts
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with regard to Israel's ongoing genocide in Gaza we focused a bit on Lebanon uh
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we talked about Iran we talked about Yemen Iraq so I want to cover some of those same bases today with a bit of a
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more focus on what everybody seems to be most concerned about right now which is a potential allout War uh between Israel
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and Hezbollah uh but before we get to that I thought it would be good to maybe
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start with an up dat if you will on you know what are your thoughts on the sort
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of military situation in Gaza right we're eight months into this horrific live stream Slaughter that Israel's been
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carrying out Israel went in saying that their intention uh their goal was to to
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eradicate Hamas that has not happened there are still ongoing battles uh Israel has managed to kill tens of
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thousands of civilians um in the process they haven't gotten all their hostages
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back because they refuse to abide by any sort of ceasefire that would do that um so yeah can you kind of paint us a
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picture of the current situation militarily speaking uh in Gaza is Israel
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any closer to achieving its goals um do you think this will end anytime soon um
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and how long do you think Kamas can last I know that's a lot a lot in there but yeah feel free to to take that where
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you'd like okay well thank you very much um even if it looks like outside the
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topic I would like to start with something extremely significant which is
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what the UN Secretary General Antonio gutterz uh enlisted Israel with Al-Qaeda
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Isis and boo Haram as a terrorist entity this is now we can comfortably uh say
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that Israel and terrorism are the same thing according to the United Nations
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that is a decision of the Secretary General and this is why it is very
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significant um having said that the reason why Antonio goes did that is
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because the Israelis have failed to achieve any of the stated objective
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militarily nevertheless they have managed to kill 16,500 uh children of Gaza and they've
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killed around 38,000 as a total of which 70% are civilians children women adly
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and others and this is the only thing they have achieved the Israeli forces uh
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have achieved apart from the destruction of the Gaza infrastructure and uh homes so more than
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half a million of the Palestinian homes have been destroyed hospitals
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universities schools everything from the military approach
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that is far from being an achievement because we have seen how the Israelis
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went to the North and then they said we mission accomplished we finished the job
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they went to the South they said exactly the same and then went to rafah but then
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they started again in the North and then they do some sort of on andof attacks in
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the South we're talking about Bon hammad and all that area and then the operation
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in Rafa continue thank thanks to the permission given by Egypt because the
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Israelis have deployed a full division uh in uh Rafa uh they have deployed
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mechanic divisions they have deployed uh Jets and helicopters and all that is
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violating 1978 uh peace agreement that is come
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David Accord and the 2005 additional protocol and because of that the
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Israelis are deployed on the Philadelphia Corridor the 14 kilometers
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uh along the Egyptian borders they managed to kill two Egyptian soldiers but Egypt closed both eyes on what the
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Israelis have done but their biggest failure is inside Rafa and in particular
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the area that is less inhabited and this is where the Israelis are receiving one
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hit after the another we have heard how the Israelis on daily bases are
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announcing between uh 8 to 11 uh
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officers and soldiers killed and a total between 16 to 32 casualties per day in
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Rafa that is significant because it shows how the organization uh of the Palestinian
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resistance is ongoing why the battle is happening we have seen how uh the
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Palestinian resistance is still bombing the Gaza envelope from the north where
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the Israelis were operating and then pulled out from the south and even from
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Rafa they bombed the um the Eastern side
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of uh the Gaza envelope settlements and they have managed to uh cause uh really
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some damage to the Israelis forcing them to go to shelters so that is significant
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because the Palestinian resistance is always sending messages
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that we are still healthy powerful and we have not been defeated with their
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actions not with their words and the Israelis are coming to a conclusion
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where they have to withdraw from rafah in the next couple of weeks which means
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the war is stagnating without achieving any purpose and it's time to sit with
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Hamas that Benyamin Netanyahu the Israeli Prime Minister promised to
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destroy to the with the recommendation of the Americans to go and sit with
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Hamas that even the Americans said they need to be finished off so we are back
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to square one of course with many civilians killed destruction of Gaza but
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again uh the Palestinian resistance has shown the fragility of the Israeli Army
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that used to be known as the strongest one of the strongest in the world and
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the best equipped military yeah that's um all very
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important to understand in especially in terms of the what the Israelis are now saying I mean there's always so much
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Bluster from Israeli officials but across the political Spectrum you hear increasing rhetoric about we need to
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destroy Lebanon we need to turn our attention to what's happening in the north even Benny Gans to's supposed to
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be this like liberal figure in Israel that the Biden Administration you know
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prefers to the lud party and and people like Benjamin Netanyahu even he recently
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said Lebanon must burn um and this is of course you know me and you are talking
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uh as we're speaking Amos hin the envoy appointed by uh President Joe Biden is
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visiting Lebanon right now where I am uh speaking to Lebanese officials after a visit to Israel trying to essentially
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Stave off an all out War because even the Americans don't think the America or
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the Israelis would be able to achieve their military objectives in Lebanon let
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alone you know the fact that they haven't been able to do so in Gaza now you recently wrote a piece Elijah your website it's called is there any
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potential Israeli War on Lebanon scenarios and implications and this is such an important piece and I want to go
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into some of the various topics you highlight um now I want to make it clear
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though the US does seem to in fact not want a war an allout war with Lebanon they're trying to prevent it but we've
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also seen that the US still lets Israel make its own decisions for the most part
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so it's still unclear like what would actually happen if Israel would be Reckless enough to do this I do want to
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point out before we get into your piece there was a recent piece by um Ali Hesham the AL jazer uh English reporter
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uh in foreign policy and I just want to quote something he says that stood out to me he said an official in Iran could
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force overseeing hisbah and other Iranian linked factions in the Middle East told foreign policy that hisbah now
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possesses more than 1 million Rockets of various types including Precision guided missiles and modified katucha rockets
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for increased accuracy as well as anti-tank missiles and that's of course in addition to all the suicide drones
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and other drones that are equipped with many different kinds of U missiles uh
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that enable air launched attacks from inside you know from inside Israeli territory uh a lot of Iranian missiles
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equipped with cameras um a lot of Israeli missiles that have been like re
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uh that have been you know taken from Lebanon and and and recreated and and made into you know working missiles for
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Hezbollah um I mean you you know you and I talked a bit about these kinds of things the last time I had youan but ISB
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hb's Arsenal is massive so I want to move to your piece now you write and I'm quoting you the primary Israeli military
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concern is that the enormous damage that hbal could INF fct on the domestic front
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meaning the Israeli economy industry and the future fragile security of Israel so
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let's start there let's say a war were to break out I'm sure this is something that Israelis are playing out Hezbollah
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is playing out American officials are playing out if an allout War were to break out what is this damage that
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you're referring to that Hezbollah has the potential to inflict on
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Israel thank you that's a very good question so let's start with what the
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Israeli military spokesperson Daniel hagari said uh he said that hisbah has
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fired more than 5,000 Rockets missiles and drones
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against Israeli Barracks along the south of Lebanon borders normally Israel
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doesn't need a reason to start a war but Israel had 5,000 reasons
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to start a war with Lebanon and it didn't first of all the Merit goes to
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the Palestinian resistance who exposed the fragility of the Israeli Army
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incapable within 364 square kilometers to defeat a
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resistance that is living in the open concentration camp where Modern weapons
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are extremely difficult to bring in and they rely first on the soul of a fighter
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second on the will to defeat the enemy third on their attachment to their
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ancestors land and forth on the weapon that they manufacture locally even if
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these weapons are primitive but they are quite efficient against an enemy when
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the fighter is really determined to confront another that doesn't owe the
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land and is afraid of going and need to destroy everything before going in so
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that was a very big lesson for the access of the resistance including Hezbollah that took the initiative for
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the first time in the history of Israel since 1948 to take the initiative and attack
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Israel and start the war on the 8th of October and then increase in intensity
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challenging humiliating the Israelis y Gan the defense minister more than 55
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times came to the border with Lebanon and threatened to destroy and annelated Lebanon Bing the security minister said
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he will burn Lebanon and every now and then there are between 15 to 21 uh
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firefighter Israeli teams trying to uh control the fire that is um in Israel
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along the borders due to the uh Hezbollah rocket and drones and missiles
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so we have seen all empty rhetoric and what you rightly said about Amos hin the
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US Envoy who came to Lebanon to try and save Israel this is exactly what the
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Americans are trying to do trying to spare Israel further humiliation in Gaza
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and major humiliation in Lebanon so what is the scenario the worst case scenario
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that Israel can have by confronting Lebanon uh because the resistance is
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part of the country part of Lebanon and it is part of the ministerial um commun that recognizes
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the right of the resistance the people in the Army to defend the country now
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first of all the Infantry it is impossible for such an infantry that we
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have seen its performance in G AA to go to a much more equipped better
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experienced and highly motivated Special Forces hasah to um be confronted with on
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the south of Lebanon today there is a very small number of hisbah who are
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operating today because hisbah doesn't need a large number first to reduce the
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casualties second there's no need with what hisbah is launching between 100 to
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300 rockets and artillery because hasah has the audacity to use even
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h52 mm on the borders exposing that to all the 70 80 Israeli drones and fire a
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terly shells on the Israelis apart from what you rightly mention the drones the
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televised drone with um television showing the word where it's a tet but
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not only that drones acting as reconnaissance filming how other drones
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are reaching that objective and attacking it we've seen that only in the
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west only with the Israelis and the Americans and now we are seeing it in Hezbollah that is showing to the
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Israelis their modern capability now the Infantry cannot go in first because
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hasah has uh more powerful laser anti
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anti-tank missiles that hisbah has fired more than 1,500 so far only of these
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laser guided which is much more than what France Arsenal is of laser guided
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missiles which means that hisbah has 10 times more and is still bringing in uh
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all the ammunition needed as as long as hisbah is using it secondly the tanks
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cannot go in because we've seen how the mechanic units have failed in confronting the RPG Yin uh Palestinian
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manufactured um um RPGs and how this is causing damage to the uh Israeli
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mechanic units thirdly the Navy is out of the equation since 2006 when hisbah
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had primitive surface to surface missile and we're talking about the Chinese
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c802 U missile that hit the uh hanit s
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five and brought the entire Navy out of the equation today heah has much more
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modern surfac to surface missile now the only way to confront hasbullah is with
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the Air Force and even that we've seen Hezbollah Downing uh five uh hermis 450
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and 900 and other two Skylight uh drones
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and the um Sayad uh 2C that the anti-air missile
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hisbah has used is faster than the F-16 but the F-16 has much more maneuver but
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not on the low altitude so it can bring down these really Jets also what about
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the uh all the Israeli oil and gas rigs what about hia and dud what about the
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Medan just crippling entirely the Israeli
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economy what about all the bars that are along uh the borders but not only that
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uh what the Israelis did thinking they are clever and hezbollah's capability is limited they have improvised 800 m to
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1,000 meter away from the original Barracks a newly uh improvised position
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where they gather the forces to tell hisbah okay well you have collected
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information about us you know where is our location we have a new one that you
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don't know this is exactly what hisbah is targeting it's targeting the newly
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improvised position is targeting the position of the Israeli intelligence
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unit in in civilian residents that were improvised in many settle set settlement
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along the borders so it's showing the update information that hisbah has and
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the last point and I allow you to speak is um what about if Israel wants to bomb
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until south of the Lani River so we're talking about at least 200,000 of
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internally displaced uh is isi people that going to move out because hisbah
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will Target an naria what about north of the Lan River then hisbah will extend to
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haa and we talking about 1 million Israeli refugees what about Beirut and
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then we talking about Tel Aviv what about the bah Valley including Beirut then we talking about Beyond T Aviv then
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how many millions will go to the shelters we've seen couple of weeks ago
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Hezbollah Target just close to haa and we've seen between
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200,000 and 1 million refugees in one day when everybody started in Israel
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screaming either you get rid of hisbah and that is not available or we stop
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this war because we can't afford it now the major general uh ishak brick the
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Israeli Major General said that Netanyahu is exposing Israel to a
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holocaust in case of a war with Lebanon that will lead to the collapse of Israel
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other people talking about we will wake up one day and we will have something
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similar to the explosion of an atomic bomb in uh the center of Israel not
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because Hezbollah has an atomic bomb but because it will bring hundreds of thousands of people in
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shelters and everything on the surface will be destroyed if Israel destroys and
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start targeting civilians and infrastructure in Lebanon because of that and because of fragility of the
23:06
Israeli Army no reservist no extra Battalion that the Army needs no
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appetite for the American to be engaged in an in a wider War Israel is not going
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to go and wage a war on Lebanon and um I want to also ask you
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about a particular group that the Israelis have been so focused on I mean they talk about it like it's the thing
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they fear the most in the war this is in the world uh this is the redwan forces
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which are I believe a few units within Hezbollah you can actually explain that
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can you tell our audience who are the rdwan forces and what would what would their role be in an Israeli uh attack on
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Lebanon and that even if it doesn't happen this is something that the Israelis play out when they have to think about whether they're going to do
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this or not first of all hasah created what is
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called the intervention force and that was when haad M was
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around and uh he was um determined to
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create a fort that is uh extremely well trained exposed to all kind of weapons
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in all weathers and it go it would go to
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a specific special train in that exceeds the training of the Seas or the ranger
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even the training is beyond one and a half years no one above the 35 years old
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is allowed to continue and they would be moved to other units and they have uh
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extended experience in the war in Syria fighting on 80,000 Square kilm when
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Lebanon we're talking about only the 6,000 square kilm the area that is not
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under the control of the Shia populated uh people but if we're talking about the
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south of Lebanon where Israel need or may think about attacking we're talking
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about between 4,000 to 5,000 uh square kilometers including the Bea Valley so
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we're talking about a minute area where the rudwan forces that were called rudwan because of Imad m is
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is called Haj rudwan and um they would operate in 4,500 square kilometers when
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these redwan forces operated in 880,000 square kilometers in Syria and a much
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bigger surface in Iraq in different circumstances they fought in the desert
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they fought in um against uh Al-Qaeda and Isis in urban uh Warfare in fought
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along the Russian and the Syrian Army they were everywhere and they experienced everything and they go to a
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regular training on daily basis on monthly bases and on yearly based updated on the latest technology these
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are the people that the Israelis are going to fight one day I hope not for the Israelis so what's going to happen
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is that these forces the number of these forces uh has increased that between
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7,000 to 10,000 and they were deployed in the south of Lebanon Before the War
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when the war started the number of the deployment of this force was extremely
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reduced be to reduce the casualties because there is no need for such a
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number on the borders and because Hezbollah was adapting to artificial
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intelligence that Israel is using recognizing the uh uh presence of the
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fighters they follow them at home they follow them in previous um offices and
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places they have managed through artificial intelligent draw a map before
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the war on the places they frequent but the Israelis are not behaving with
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Hezbollah as they are behaving with the Palestinians with the Palestinians there
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is a big margin of error of artificial intelligence and because the Israelis
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feel in a much more powerful position they are taking on board all the
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objective presented by the artificial intelligence and this is why they are inflicting very heavy civilian
27:37
casualties over the Palestinians they don't dare to do the same in Lebanon but then because they will be confronted
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with an equal attack on the civilians if Israel does the same so they have to be
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the Israelis have to be extremely careful in selecting the target the redwan force is today on the side most
27:58
of it but only small part of it that is related to the anti-air missiles to the
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anti-tank missiles and Laser guided missiles to the artillery and to the
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drones that they have experienced and mastered and we've seen that in their videos uh in attack and in maneuvering
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uh visible or uh behind uh Hills or behind concrete or hidden in different
28:25
part that the israelies try to camouflage and this is the unit that Israel is
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afraid of confronting and this is the unit that is preventing the Israelis from thinking about going into Lebanon
28:40
or occupying any main Hills because hasah also think what Israel can
28:48
be capable of doing and what is the worst case scenario and they discover
28:54
according to what I come across with that it is possible for the Israeli to
29:01
come and occupy few Hill but then it is impossible for the Israeli to spend even
29:07
the night there because the the function of the rudwan Special Forces is to make
29:14
sure that the Israeli will not be able to leave where do they put their foot in in the south of Lebanon beyond the um
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borders so what we have today is we have a buffer zone for the first time
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that was created inside beyond the Lebanese borders where no Israeli can
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live and everybody has abandoned It For the First Time Israel not only is
29:41
attacked on the 8th of October is forced to humiliation and there is a buffer
29:47
zone that is created in the land that is under its occupation and it is not
29:53
taking the initiative to uh transport the battle into what it's called the
29:59
enemy territory and you know real quick since you mentioned uh the buffer zone which
30:05
we've heard a lot a lot about I want to actually show um a map that the Washington
30:12
Institute for Dar policy which is like a horrible Zionist Think Tank uh in
30:18
Washington DC but I will credit them they did create this interactive map that I'm showing on the screen right now
30:25
of essentially they they catalog the Israeli strikes on Southern Lebanon and
30:30
the Hezbollah strikes on Northern Israel and it's a really really interesting map to look at because what you see is you
30:37
know for those who are are watching um all these little blue dots are the Israeli strikes since uh sorry since uh
30:44
October 8th um let me zoom in a little bit this is the northern Israel border
30:50
and the southern Lebanon border and then all the all the yellow strikes are hezbollah's strikes on Northern Israel
30:56
so I mean it's it's not like there's a vast you know the vast majority of them are not blue or yellow it seems to be
31:02
pretty even because what you've had since October 8th is this tip Fort
31:08
obviously Israel has you know far more destructive weapons than hisbah has that said this is the buffer zone you're
31:14
talking about it's created this buffer zone inside Northern Israel as well as you could say Southern Lebanon right
31:20
people from both of these sides of the Border have essentially been displaced uh in significant numbers uh because of
31:26
the back and forth um but I'm curious Elijah could you just elaborate a bit on the significance of this buffer zone in
31:33
terms of what it's meant for Israel because this is the first time in history since the creation of this state
31:40
that there has been a buffer zone inside of territory Israel
31:45
controls the most significant first point I would say is how hisbah is
31:52
conducting a war along 120 kilometers
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equally engaging the Israelis on a large uh
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front and that is not easy from the military point of view to be able to uh
32:10
open a front that is so wide including the Golan height that is a Syrian
32:15
territory occupied by the Israelis where there are uh several very important and
32:22
significant military Israeli military facilities that give that can even
32:28
monitor turkey from that area and the whole of Syria and for hollah to send a
32:34
message saying that we are hitting you in Barracks that you have those who are
32:41
static and others which are improvised along the 120 kilometers that is unheard
32:48
of not even a classical Army can maintain such an intensity as your map
32:54
is showing for uh almost 9 months that is very significant secondly the
33:01
quantity of weapons and ammunition when hisbah is using uh so much ammunition
33:09
along 120 kilometers ready for a war that can last at least one year with
33:17
Israel and decide that it's important to inflict serious damage on the domestic
33:24
front and maintain between 500 to 1,500 rocket missile per day we're
33:32
talking about an Arsenal that is a very very large with the possibility that
33:40
maybe Israel will be able with its Air Force to close the supply line thirdly
33:47
it indicates and reinforce the point that Hezbollah is manufacturing weapons
33:53
domestically apart from modifying these weapons to fit its war and um that will
34:02
help hisbah to uh sustain the battle fourth what we are seeing today above
34:10
the ground I think it is very little in comparison of the Cities under the
34:17
ground we're not talking about tunnels we're talking about cities and the
34:22
importance of these this city or cities in the south of Lebanon
34:28
is has a purpose to fight against artificial intelligence Fighters need to go under
34:35
the ground and not remain above the ground because artificial intelligence is very de developed and can monitor
34:43
something that the naked eye cannot see this is why it is important to make sure
34:50
that there is no difference of the topography when fighter to go to one place and then to another at the change
34:58
the the uh burning of the leaves due to the fire when um a laser guide the
35:05
missile is fired or artillery or a rocket because the traces will always uh
35:12
be left behind this is why it is important to make sure that the fighters
35:19
can live under the ground as they live above the ground and even better the
35:25
communication also it's important because when Fighters go to the south of
35:30
Lebanon sometimes for 10 to 15 days they cannot be replaced so they have to be
35:36
able to sustain a long period of time fighting every day against an enemy
35:44
without being replaced another point is the logistic Supply so they have to have
35:49
enough ammunition and food and water to sustain their presence and continue the
35:55
battle so they are completely autonomous this is not an a classical
36:01
Army cannot do that a non-state actor cannot do that and this is why hasbullah
36:08
is called uh uh a highly organized
36:13
irregular non-state actor because it has managed to combine both the classical
36:19
and the gorilla warfare using modern technology but everything that a special
36:26
force need which is completely different from classical Army where Special Forces
36:33
can live in all conditions and they have the endurance to sustain a long life and
36:40
a long uh resilience and fighting as long as it takes so what we see on the
36:47
map we see something that as you have shown the people who are watching this
36:52
video this is exactly what the Israelis are looking at in their operation room
36:58
and they are thinking how the hell we can attack an an an organized non-state
37:05
actor that can spread everywhere because at certain point in the past Hezbollah
37:11
used to think well maybe these really can come from the Syrian axis that is
37:18
the most fragile and then the Syrian axis is not active yet because this is
37:24
where Hezbollah is ready for them on the Syrian soil and this is something that President Bashar Al Assad fully gave his
37:31
consensus in case Israel attacks so for that Syria is not going to be on the
37:36
side but it will be more engaged than Lebanon in case of an all war but
37:42
there's another point that is important as you are in Lebanon for the Lebanese
37:47
to hear of course hisbah doesn't need men because it has tens of thousand of
37:55
well-trained men to fight nevertheless hisbah doesn't mind to have specialized
38:02
unit that come from the friend and the members of the axis of the
38:08
resistance these people can come to Lebanon and can support because heah
38:14
needs to sustain on daily basis as I said between 500 to
38:19
1,500 the figures of 4,000 to 5,000 are a bit um you're talking about missiles
38:27
sorry you're talking about missiles the number you're putting out but you said 500 to 1500 you're talking
38:33
about M like daily daily missile attacks daily yeah daily in and all out War yeah
38:38
okay yeah rocket um missiles and drones and artillery for when you mentioned
38:45
4,000 well just real quick to specify for people who are who are listening and watching when you say 45,000 that's the
38:52
estimate of daily attacks that the Israelis say his Bal is capable of firing but please go ah yeah it's not
38:58
realistic because if we divide that if we multiply that by 365 days we have
39:04
over a million and this is not something that is um logical from the military
39:10
point of view because for hisbah as hisbah did in 2006 we understood that it
39:16
is extremely important to show to the Israelis a capability of launch on daily
39:22
basis nonstop without any break and that is something that puts a lot of pressure
39:31
not only on the military psychologically militarily and on the domestic front
39:38
that they have to live for 365 days in their shelters all the time
39:45
and this is why four 400 to 500 uh rockets and missiles I think are enough
39:52
to keep all of Israel in the shelter for a year can they live that but we not
39:57
talking about easy missiles because if the Israeli want to advance in the
40:03
Lebanese territory then this is something that is going to be detrimental for Israel I will explain
40:10
why because the uh further Hezbollah needs to fire its missiles the heavier
40:17
the missil is going to be so we start talking about at least 400 uh kilogram
40:23
of explosive with missile carrying heavy explosive to hit the Israelis and we're
40:29
talking about between 400 or 350 to 2,100 kg of explosive so the further the
40:37
Israelis cross the border the heavier they will have to endure on the domestic
40:44
front and on the barracks so it this is not in their advantage so I was saying
40:50
that sustaining the the 500 to 1,500 uh missile rocket and drone per
40:58
day is something that Hezbollah would easily do to show the Israelis the
41:04
capability but then who is going to fire that every day nonstop this is where the
41:10
Allies come into action be specialized allies but my question is what's going
41:18
to happen to these allies at the end of the war are they going to leave I don't think so because in this case they will
41:25
remain in Lebanon and they will continue supporting the uh hisbah for a longer
41:32
War but then the further the Israelis want to push the hisbah and his Society
41:40
away from the south and the Bea Valley these people need to go somewhere
41:45
they're not going to go to the B to this to Syria they're going to go in land and
41:50
they going to go into the Lebanese territory are the US allies thinking
41:56
about this possibil what's going to happen to the allies of
42:01
the us all the Israelis thinking about their potential allies in Lebanon what's
42:07
going to happen to them when this Society needs to move from one area to another so all these questions I think
42:14
the Israelis and the Americans need to think about very carefully how they going to change the geography of Lebanon
42:23
but the Shia are not going to go anywhere they're going to stay in Lebanon but they have to stay somewhere
42:29
and in particular in areas where a society is supportive of Israel because
42:35
there will not be a room for them so I also just want to point out
42:41
and this is something you mentioned in your piece um when we talk about the destructive capacity that Hezbollah has
42:47
to inflict on Israel it's not also of course to deny what they can do to Lebanon we know they can they can
42:52
destroy Lebanon there's no question with their air superiority but hisb has also shown that does have uh surface to a
43:00
missiles that have been able to hit to bring down Israeli drones uh that could
43:06
potentially be used against Israeli fighter jets and and then you know you could lead to the capture of Pilots I
43:11
mean there's so many situations uh that are so damaging for the Israelis that
43:16
could come out of a war on Lebanon even if they were to destroy Lebanon and a point you make too that I just want to
43:22
emphasize is that hisbah has the capacity to endure and Lebanon actually
43:27
has the capacity to endure more than Israel can hisbah can handle casualties
43:32
in a way that Israel cannot um it can deal with the financial damage it's already under extreme sanction lebanon's
43:37
already in economic collapse these are not things that the Israelis are used to that then they would have to try have to
43:43
endure like the economic uh consequences of a broader War would be quite devastating for Israel as well something
43:50
that lebanon's already used to dealing with so in many cases you know the
43:55
Israelis just aren't and you mentioned also the attachment to the land I mean there's so many reasons why the Israelis
44:01
are not prepared and will never be prepared for a big war with hisbah but
44:06
then there's also the addition of and you kind of alluded to this when you're talking about allies and this is something the Americans have repeatedly
44:12
warned about when they're going to tell the Israelis don't go to all out war with Lebanon don't go to all out war with Lebanon is the fear that it would
44:19
draw in Iran um and so I'm just curious you know because we haven't talked about
44:25
that element I wanted to just bring in the fact that not to you know just a couple months ago the Iranians
44:31
demonstrated their capability at least some of their capability when after Israel attacked their uh Consulate in
44:38
Damascus and killed several Iranian uh leaders uh they responded with a very
44:45
choreographed and you know warned about uh missile launch they launched 300
44:51
different kinds of missiles at the Israelis to demonstrate what they could do the Israelis had a week of preparation so several countries came in
44:58
to help block any of these missiles from actually hitting Israel which is of course is what Iran was betting on because they didn't want to provoke a
45:04
bigger war that said you know are the Americans right do you think that if
45:09
Israel did launch an allout war on Lebanon it would draw in the Iranians and then ultimately what the Americans big fear is is that it would draw them
45:16
in as as well well it's it's really clever to mention the Iranian attack and if Iran
45:24
going to be involved or not because if you enjoyed this episode and want to hear the rest you can access it by
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